Writing analytic judgments is a critical skill for intelligence analysts, allowing them to present clear, well-founded conclusions based on their analysis. These judgments help decision-makers understand complex situations and make informed decisions. Here’s a guide on how to effectively write analytic judgments.

Understanding Analytic Judgements

Analytic judgments are conclusions derived from the analysis of data and information. These judgments are based on evidence and logical reasoning, providing an assessment of situations, events, or trends. They are essential in intelligence reports, policy papers, and strategic assessments.

Key Elements of Analytic Judgements

Analytic judgments should be clear and straightforward. Avoid jargon and overly complex language to ensure that decision-makers can easily understand the judgment and its implications. Judgments must be supported by robust evidence, citing data sources, referencing relevant information, and explaining how the evidence leads to the conclusion. The reasoning behind the judgment should be logical and coherent, explaining the steps taken to arrive at the conclusion. Focus on what matters most to the decision-makers, highlighting key findings and their implications for the specific issue at hand. Clearly communicate the level of confidence in the judgment and any uncertainties, helping decision-makers understand the reliability of the assessment and the risks involved.

Steps to Writing Effective Analytic Judgements

Start by clearly defining the question or issue that the judgment addresses, setting the scope and focus of the analysis. Collect relevant data and information from credible sources, analyzing the data using appropriate methods to identify patterns, trends, and key insights. Based on the analysis, develop a clear and concise judgment that directly addresses the defined question and is supported by evidence. Articulate the reasoning process behind the judgment, explaining how the evidence leads to the conclusion and addressing any alternative explanations. Indicate the level of confidence in the judgment and discuss any uncertainties or assumptions, using language that accurately conveys the degree of certainty. Review the judgment for clarity, coherence, and accuracy, seeking feedback from colleagues and making necessary revisions.

Example of an Analytic Judgment

Consider a scenario where the question is: What is the likelihood of increased cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure in the next six months? A possible analytic judgment could be: It is highly likely that cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure will increase in the next six months. This judgment is supported by recent trends indicating a significant rise in cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure sectors such as energy, healthcare, and transportation. Intelligence from cybersecurity agencies highlights increased activity from known threat actors, coupled with vulnerabilities in outdated systems. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have escalated, historically correlating with spikes in cyber-attacks. While some improvements in cyber defense measures have been noted, they are insufficient to counter the growing threat fully. This judgment is made with high confidence based on current trends and available intelligence, though the situation is dynamic, and advancements in cyber defense technologies or changes in threat actor behavior could alter this assessment.

Resources for Further Learning

For those seeking to enhance their skills in writing analytic judgments, consider the following resources:

• Books:

  • Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson

  • Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer Jr.

• Online Courses:

  • MITx: The Analytics Edge

By mastering the art of writing analytic judgments, analysts can provide valuable insights that support informed decision-making and enhance the effectiveness of intelligence operations.