Overview: Ali Mohamed Kibao, a senior member of Tanzania's opposition Chadema party, was abducted from a bus by armed men on September 6 and later found dead, with early investigations indicating that he was beaten and doused with acid. This incident, which occurred in the lead-up to Tanzania's local elections in December 2024, has escalated concerns about political violence in the country. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has ordered an investigation, while Chadema has called for a judicial commission to probe the recurring incidents of abduction and killings of political figures.

Analysis: The assassination of Ali Mohamed Kibao highlights the increasing volatility in Tanzania's political landscape, particularly in the context of the approaching elections. The use of violence, including torture and acid attacks, as alleged in Kibao's case, suggests a targeted effort to intimidate opposition figures. This follows a pattern of government crackdowns, as seen in the mass arrests of Chadema supporters in August, raising concerns about the state of democracy under President Hassan’s administration.

While President Hassan has taken steps to relax media restrictions and engage the opposition since succeeding the late President John Magufuli in 2021, incidents like this, combined with her government’s recent actions, point to a potential regression into the oppressive policies seen under her predecessor. The killing of Kibao may indicate broader, systemic efforts to silence political dissent, which could be tied to concerns about the influence of the ruling party in the upcoming elections.

The Chadema party, which has long challenged the Tanzanian government, is now calling for more robust investigations into politically motivated violence. However, the involvement of state forces in Kibao’s killing, as hinted by opposition figures, complicates the prospects of a transparent and impartial investigation.

This incident could have significant implications for Tanzania’s political stability. If opposition parties and their leaders continue to be targeted, it could lead to increased unrest and further delegitimization of the electoral process. International human rights organizations may also ramp up pressure on the Tanzanian government to ensure the safety of political opponents and safeguard democratic institutions ahead of the general elections.