Airspace and Influence: Israel and Turkey on Collision Course in Post-Assad Syria
Executive Summary
In the aftermath of Syria’s regime change, Israel and Turkey are increasingly entangled in a tense contest for strategic dominance, prompting fears of a direct clash between two of the region’s most powerful militaries. As both nations expand their military footprints and political influence in Syria, Israeli airstrikes on Turkish-backed sites and Ankara’s base-building plans have escalated the standoff. Despite U.S. efforts at mediation, the emerging rivalry is transforming Syria into a new fault line of geopolitical competition, with major implications for regional security.
Analysis
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, Syria has become a battleground for influence between Israel and Turkey. Ankara backs the new interim government led by former rebel factions, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), while Jerusalem remains wary of an empowered Islamist regime near its borders. The two powers have begun shaping Syria’s future through diverging strategies: Turkey through military integration and economic partnerships, Israel through strategic strikes and buffer zone creation.
Recent Israeli airstrikes cratered Syrian runways and destroyed military infrastructure, including at the T-4 and Hama airbases, in what Israeli officials described as a clear warning to Ankara. Turkey had been evaluating these bases for military deployment under a new Turkish-Syrian defense pact. Israeli officials argue that Turkish air defenses and radar systems in Syria could severely limit the IAF’s freedom of movement, including its ability to target threats in Syria or beyond.
Turkey, meanwhile, has denied intentions of confrontation, asserting that its involvement is focused on stabilizing Syria, combating ISIS, and filling the vacuum left by Russia and Iran. Yet reports confirm Turkish reconnaissance and infrastructure upgrades at Syrian airbases, fueling Israeli fears of long-term Turkish entrenchment. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Syria “doesn’t belong to Turkey or Israel” and called for restraint, but also reaffirmed Turkey’s right to defend its national interests.
Talks between Israeli and Turkish defense officials in Azerbaijan mark a rare attempt to deconflict operations, but rhetoric from both sides continues to harden. Erdogan’s fiery condemnation of Israel and Netanyahu’s warnings about Turkish “threats” inside Syria are reflective of deeper regional posturing. U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to mediate, lauding Erdogan as “smart” and suggesting Netanyahu be “reasonable,” but stopped short of outlining any formal strategy.
Analysts caution that the ongoing airstrikes and military buildup could drag Syria into a proxy conflict, especially as locals increasingly view Turkey as a stabilizing partner and Israel as a destabilizing force. While the U.S. and EU continue to enforce sanctions and offer mixed messages on Syria’s new leadership, the space for diplomacy is narrowing. Observers warn that without coordination, the region could spiral into a direct Israel-Turkey confrontation, something neither side appears to want but both may be sliding toward.
