Kenyan-Led International Forces in Haiti Unlikely to Deter Gang Violence, Leading to Escalation of Humanitarian Crisis
Key Judgments
The deployment of Kenyan-led international forces to Haiti, aimed at combating gang violence, is unlikely to achieve its intended goals, as armed groups continue to adapt and redirect their terror campaigns outside the capital, Port-au-Prince. This failure to contain the violence is expected to exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation, with significant implications for regional stability and international intervention efforts.
Supporting Evidence
Since the arrival of the Kenyan police officers in late June 2024, the situation in Haiti has remained precarious. While the presence of these forces has provided some relief in parts of Port-au-Prince, gang violence has not diminished overall. Instead, gangs have shifted their focus to outlying areas, such as the town of Ganthier, where they continue to commit atrocities, including the recent destruction of the local police station and the killing of several residents (WLRN) (Hands and Feet Project).
The Kenyan-led force, while well-intentioned, is hampered by several challenges, including insufficient numbers, inadequate equipment, and limited air and sea assets. These limitations have made it difficult for the force to respond effectively to gang activities, which continue to spread beyond the capital. Additionally, the slow pace of international support and funding further undermines the mission's effectiveness, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the intervention (WWNO) (Hands and Feet Project).
Implications
As the gangs remain undeterred by the international presence, Haiti's humanitarian crisis is likely to worsen. With key roadways and ports still under gang control, the flow of essential goods and humanitarian aid remains disrupted, leading to shortages of food, medicine, and other critical supplies. The ongoing violence and insecurity are also expected to drive further displacement, increasing the number of internally displaced persons and refugees, and placing additional strain on neighboring countries.
Recommendations
Strengthen International Support: Urge the international community to increase funding and resources for the Kenyan-led mission, including the provision of air and sea support to enhance operational capabilities.
Expand Humanitarian Assistance: Mobilize additional humanitarian aid to address the immediate needs of the affected population, particularly in areas outside of Port-au-Prince that are now facing increased gang activity.
Promote Regional Cooperation: Encourage neighboring countries to collaborate on security and humanitarian efforts, ensuring a coordinated response to the crisis and preventing the spread of violence across borders.
Monitor and Adapt Strategies: Continuously assess the effectiveness of the current intervention strategy and adapt as necessary to address the evolving tactics of the gangs and the changing security landscape.
