US Withdrawal from Niger Likely to Undermine Counterterrorism Efforts and Strengthen Russia's Influence
Key Judgments
The recent handover of the last US military base in Niger to the ruling junta is likely to significantly undermine American and Western counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel region. This move marks a shift in Niger’s geopolitical alignments, potentially strengthening Russia's influence in the region.
Supporting Evidence
On August 5, 2024, the US Department of Defense and Niger’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the transfer of Airbase 201 in Agadez to local authorities. This follows the earlier withdrawal from Airbase 101 in Niamey, which was completed earlier in the month. The withdrawal is a consequence of the ruling junta's decision in March to end the agreement allowing US military operations in Niger. By mid-September, all American troops are expected to leave the country (The Independent) (ABC17NEWS)
Niger had been a critical ally for the US in its counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel, a region plagued by extremist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS. The strategic location of the bases enabled the US to conduct surveillance and counterterrorism missions effectively. The withdrawal forces the US to abandon these critical operations, which may allow jihadist groups, such as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), to expand their activities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and potentially into Benin and Togo (MilVet Benefits) (Republic World).
In recent months, Niger has shifted its security alignments towards Russia. In April, Russian military trainers arrived to bolster Niger’s air defenses, reflecting a broader trend of increasing Russian influence in African nations that were traditionally aligned with the West. This shift could lead to enhanced military cooperation between Niger and Russia, complicating Western efforts to maintain stability in the region (The Independent) (NY1).
Implications
The US withdrawal from Niger is expected to weaken counterterrorism operations in the Sahel, potentially leading to a resurgence of extremist violence and instability in the region. This realignment may also strengthen Russia’s geopolitical influence in West Africa, challenging Western strategic interests.
Recommendations
Enhance Regional Partnerships: Strengthen ties with other Sahelian countries to continue counterterrorism efforts and maintain regional stability. Collaborate with local governments to support their security capabilities.
Monitor Russian Activities: Increase intelligence and surveillance operations to monitor Russian military activities and influence in Niger and other African nations, ensuring a strategic response to counterbalance this influence.
Support Diplomatic Efforts: Engage in diplomatic initiatives to persuade Niger's government to reconsider its alignment with Russia and reestablish cooperation with Western nations.
Invest in Humanitarian Aid: Provide humanitarian assistance to mitigate the impact of potential increased violence and instability on local populations, thereby preventing further radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups.
Adapt Counterterrorism Strategies: Adjust counterterrorism strategies to operate without the bases in Niger, utilizing alternative locations and methods to continue surveillance and intervention efforts effectively.