Executive Summary

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has released a statement celebrating the assassination of Salwan Momika, an Iraqi refugee in Sweden known for publicly burning copies of the Quran. Momika was fatally shot in his apartment in Södertälje on January 29, 2025. AQAP described his death as divine punishment and called on Muslims worldwide to continue “the battle of the Quran” by targeting others who insult Islam.

This assassination has raised concerns about transnational terrorism, particularly in Sweden, which has been struggling to manage the fallout from Quran-burning protests that have triggered diplomatic crises with Muslim-majority nations. The killing is also being investigated for potential foreign involvement, as Momika was the subject of a fatwa issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Analysis

AQAP’s Justification for Violence

In its four-page Arabic-language statement, AQAP:

• Denounced Sweden as an “enemy of Islam” for allowing Momika to carry out his public desecrations under the country’s freedom of speech protections.

• Declared his assassination a divine act of justice, stating that Momika had “fought Allah” and was punished “from where he did not consider.”

• Quoted Osama bin Laden’s infamous warning, “If your freedom of speech has no limits, then let your hearts open to our freedom of action,” suggesting that AQAP intends to target more individuals engaged in anti-Islam activities.

• Urged Muslims worldwide to take revenge against those who “insult the Prophet Muhammad and desecrate the Quran.”

AQAP has a history of using similar rhetoric to incite violence. It previously issued threats following incidents of Quran desecration and attacks on Islamic symbols in Europe, particularly after the 2015 Charlie Hebdo shootings in France.

The International Fallout and Sweden’s Security Concerns

Momika’s assassination follows months of tensions in Sweden over Quran burnings, which sparked protests across the Muslim world and even delayed Sweden’s NATO accession. Sweden’s Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, acknowledged the possibility that the killing was connected to a foreign power, and Swedish security services are investigating whether Iran, Islamic extremist groups, or transnational criminal networks played a role.

Salwan Najem, another Iraqi-born man who participated in Quran burnings alongside Momika, was convicted of incitement against an ethnic group just days after Momika’s killing. A Swedish court ruled that his actions exceeded legal protections under freedom of expression, reinforcing the country’s struggle to balance free speech with national security.

Iran’s Alleged Role and the Broader Pattern of Targeting Islam Critics

Iran has a long history of using proxies and criminal networks to eliminate its critics abroad. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had issued a fatwa calling for Momika’s execution, branding him an apostate. This is part of a broader pattern of Islamist violence targeting individuals who publicly criticize Islam, including:

• Salman Rushdie (targeted in 1989 and again in 2022 for “The Satanic Verses”)

• Charlie Hebdo journalists (murdered in 2015 for publishing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad)

• Theo Van Gogh (Dutch filmmaker assassinated in 2004 for his film “Submission” criticizing Islam’s treatment of women)

• David Amess (British MP murdered in 2021 by an extremist for his pro-Israel stance)

Implications for Global Security

Momika’s murder highlights the growing reach of jihadist networks and the persistent threat of Islamist terrorism in Europe. Key concerns include:

• Radicalization in Europe: Sweden and other European countries face an ongoing challenge in balancing free speech with the risk of violent reprisals. The rise of extremist networks operating within immigrant communities increases the potential for lone-wolf or organized terror attacks.

• State-Sponsored Assassinations: If Iran is found to be involved in Momika’s killing, it would mark another instance of Tehran using extrajudicial means to target dissidents abroad, similar to its past assassination attempts in the U.S. and Europe.

• The AQAP Threat: While AQAP has been relatively weakened in recent years due to U.S. counterterrorism operations in Yemen, this latest call for global jihad underscores its continued ideological influence. The group remains a serious threat, particularly in the Arabian Peninsula and Africa.

Future Outlook

The assassination of Salwan Momika will likely have wide-reaching consequences:

• Increased Threats to Islam Critics: AQAP’s endorsement of his killing may encourage further attacks on individuals critical of Islam in Europe and beyond.

• Stronger Counterterrorism Measures in Sweden: Swedish authorities may implement heightened security for high-profile figures deemed at risk.

• Possible Retaliation from Iran’s Enemies: If Iran is found responsible, Sweden and its Western allies may impose sanctions or diplomatic measures against Tehran.

Sources

• MEMRI

• The Guardian

• FDD