Armenia's Potential Exit from CSTO Expected to Alter Regional Geopolitical Dynamics and Strain Russia's Influence

Key Judgments

Armenia's potential exit from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is expected to alter regional geopolitical dynamics significantly and strain Russia's influence in the South Caucasus. This move could prompt increased cooperation with Western nations and exacerbate existing regional tensions, particularly with Azerbaijan, impacting regional security and economic stability.

Supporting Evidence

Armenia has recently suspended its participation in the CSTO, citing dissatisfaction with the organization's failure to support Armenia during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and subsequent Azerbaijani offensives. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed frustration with the CSTO’s inability to fulfill its objectives and indicated a shift towards seeking security guarantees from Western partners, including the United States and France.

The Armenian government has criticized Russia for not delivering promised military support and for leading a coordinated propaganda campaign against Armenian leadership. This has led to a significant cooling of relations between Yerevan and Moscow, pushing Armenia to explore alternatives to its security alliances.

Armenia's pivot towards the West is evidenced by its recent engagements with the European Union. The EU has increased its monitoring mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and is considering military aid to Armenia through the European Peace Fund. This move has been met with sharp criticism from Russia, which views it as a geopolitical confrontation in the South Caucasus region.

The possible withdrawal from the CSTO would signal Armenia's intent to adopt a "non-bloc status," allowing it to enhance defense and military-industrial cooperation with various countries beyond Russia. This could include strategic partnerships with nations such as India and increased ties with Western military and economic frameworks.

Implications

Armenia’s potential exit from the CSTO is expected to strain Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, a region where it has traditionally played a dominant role. This could weaken Russia's geopolitical standing and reduce its leverage over Armenia and other CSTO members.

The shift in Armenia’s alliances is likely to increase regional tensions, particularly with Azerbaijan, which might exploit the perceived weakening of Armenian security guarantees. This could lead to renewed conflicts and destabilize the region further.

Regional security dynamics will be significantly impacted as Armenia seeks closer ties with Western countries. This realignment could prompt a strategic response from Russia and its regional allies, potentially leading to a new balance of power in the South Caucasus.

Economic stability in the region could be affected as increased tensions and potential conflicts disrupt trade and investment. The South Caucasus is a critical corridor for energy exports from the Caspian region to Europe, and any instability could have broader economic implications.

Recommendations

Enhance diplomatic efforts to manage the transition and mitigate the risk of regional conflict. Engaging all stakeholders in dialogue can help ensure a peaceful realignment of Armenia’s security policies.

Support Armenia’s efforts to diversify its security partnerships while ensuring that this does not exacerbate regional tensions. Promoting cooperative security arrangements that include both Western and regional actors can help stabilize the situation.

Monitor and address the humanitarian implications of any increased conflict in the region. International organizations should be prepared to provide aid and support to affected populations.

Encourage economic cooperation and development initiatives that can help offset the destabilizing effects of political realignments. Investment in infrastructure, trade, and energy projects can promote regional stability and prosperity.

Strengthen intelligence-sharing and joint security initiatives among Western allies to effectively respond to any regional escalation. Coordinated efforts can help manage the security challenges posed by the shifting geopolitical landscape.