Azerbaijan's Application to Join BRICS Likely to Strengthen Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Intensify Regional Power Dynamics
Key Judgment:
Azerbaijan’s application to join the BRICS alliance immediately following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit signals a significant geopolitical shift that could deepen Azerbaijan's ties with Russia and other BRICS nations. This move is likely to enhance Azerbaijan's economic and strategic positioning within a multipolar world order, while potentially straining its relations with Western powers and complicating regional dynamics, particularly with Armenia.
Supporting Evidence:
1. Geopolitical Context and Timing:
Azerbaijan’s decision to seek BRICS membership comes on the heels of a high-profile visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicating a deliberate and coordinated effort to strengthen ties with Moscow and align more closely with BRICS nations. The timing is crucial as it follows a period of intensified Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation, particularly in the context of regional security and economic integration. This strategic move also occurs amidst ongoing tensions in the South Caucasus, especially concerning Azerbaijan’s relations with Armenia and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
2. Economic and Strategic Incentives:
The BRICS bloc, which has recently expanded to include several significant global economies like Iran and the UAE, represents a substantial portion of the world’s economic output and offers Azerbaijan access to new markets and financial systems less influenced by Western sanctions. With Azerbaijan’s economy heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, BRICS membership could facilitate greater economic diversification and access to investment from member states like China and India. The $120 million earmarked for improving cargo transport between Azerbaijan and Russia underscores the deepening economic ties and the potential for Azerbaijan to play a pivotal role in BRICS' energy and transport networks.
3. Regional Security and Political Implications:
Azerbaijan’s pivot toward BRICS could exacerbate tensions with Armenia, particularly given Russia’s historical role as Armenia’s security guarantor. Armenia has grown increasingly wary of Russia's role in the region, especially after Azerbaijan’s military advances in Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku’s closer alignment with Moscow and potential access to BRICS military and technological resources could further shift the regional power balance, leading to a recalibration of security alliances and possibly increasing the likelihood of renewed conflict in the South Caucasus.
4. Diplomatic Repercussions:
Azerbaijan’s move to join BRICS could strain its relations with Western countries, particularly the United States and the European Union, which have been critical of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. By aligning more closely with Russia and China, Baku risks alienating Western powers, which could lead to reduced diplomatic support and economic engagement. This shift may also affect Azerbaijan's participation in Western-led initiatives and its relationships within organizations like the OSCE, which has been involved in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Implications:
Azerbaijan’s application to join BRICS represents a strategic realignment that could have far-reaching implications for its domestic and foreign policy. Economically, BRICS membership could provide Azerbaijan with new opportunities for growth and integration into a multipolar global economy. However, this alignment may also lead to increased tensions with Western powers, which could impose further diplomatic and economic challenges for Baku. Regionally, Azerbaijan’s closer ties with Russia and other BRICS members could heighten tensions with Armenia, potentially destabilizing the already volatile South Caucasus. As Azerbaijan moves forward with its BRICS aspirations, it will need to navigate a complex web of geopolitical relationships to maximize the benefits while mitigating the risks associated with this significant geopolitical shift.
