Failed Coup Attempt in Bolivia Probably Will Exacerbate Political and Economic Instability
Key Judgments
The recent failed coup attempt in Bolivia, led by General Juan José Zúñiga, probably will exacerbate the country’s political and economic instability. The events underscore the fragility of Bolivia’s democratic institutions and may lead to increased unrest and further deterioration of governmental authority. The potential for continued military dissent and political fragmentation poses significant challenges to the stability and governance of Bolivia.
Supporting Evidence
On June 26, 2024, General Juan José Zúñiga orchestrated an attempted coup against President Luis Arce. Armored vehicles and troops were deployed to the government palace in La Paz, attempting to seize control. However, the coup quickly collapsed as President Arce confronted Zúñiga directly, ordering the military to stand down. Following the failed coup, Zúñiga and other co-conspirators, including former Navy chief Juan Arnez, were arrested .
The attempted coup highlights deep-seated issues within Bolivia’s military and political landscape. It comes amid an ongoing economic crisis and widespread public dissatisfaction with the government. The swift collapse of the coup was met with large public demonstrations supporting President Arce, indicating a significant portion of the population’s commitment to maintaining democratic governance .
Implications
The failed coup attempt is likely to deepen the political and economic crises in Bolivia. The arrest of senior military officials involved in the coup may lead to further divisions within the armed forces, potentially increasing the risk of future insurrections. The instability could deter foreign investment and exacerbate the economic downturn, worsening living conditions for the Bolivian people.
The situation also poses challenges for regional stability. Neighboring countries may face increased pressure to intervene or support diplomatic resolutions to prevent further destabilization. The international community’s response, including that of regional organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS), will be crucial in supporting Bolivia’s democratic institutions and ensuring long-term stability.
Recommendations
1. Strengthen Democratic Institutions: Support efforts to strengthen Bolivia’s democratic institutions through international cooperation and capacity-building initiatives. Encourage dialogue and reconciliation among political factions to foster a more inclusive political environment.
2. Enhance Security and Stability: Assist Bolivia in reforming its security sector to ensure loyalty to democratic governance and prevent future military insurrections. Provide training and resources to enhance the capabilities of civilian law enforcement agencies.
3. Address Economic Challenges: Offer economic assistance and investment to help stabilize Bolivia’s economy. Support initiatives that promote sustainable development and reduce economic inequality, addressing some of the root causes of political unrest.
4. Promote Human Rights and Rule of Law: Advocate for the protection of human rights and adherence to the rule of law in the wake of the coup attempt. Ensure that those involved in the coup are held accountable through transparent legal processes.
5. Foster Regional Cooperation: Encourage regional cooperation and dialogue to address the broader implications of Bolivia’s instability. Engage neighboring countries in efforts to support Bolivia’s recovery and maintain regional stability.
