Date: August 19, 2024

Subject: Analysis of Boris Johnson's Advocacy for Lifting the Ban on Ukraine’s Use of Storm Shadow Missiles in Russia

Summary: Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has publicly called for the removal of restrictions that currently prevent Ukraine from using Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets within Russia. Johnson’s stance, articulated in a recent op-ed, underscores his support for Ukraine’s recent military actions and his belief that Ukrainian forces should be fully empowered to utilize the advanced weaponry provided by the West. This call comes amid ongoing debates within the international community about the potential risks of escalating the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Incident Overview: On August 17, 2024, Boris Johnson published an article in The Daily Mail where he expressed support for Ukraine’s recent offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Johnson praised the operation as a significant strategic move and urged Ukraine’s Western allies to allow the use of advanced military systems, including the Storm Shadow missiles provided by the UK. He criticized current restrictions that prevent Ukraine from targeting Russian military installations within Russia, arguing that these limitations hinder Ukraine’s ability to defend itself effectively.

Johnson specifically called on the UK’s current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, to take decisive action by lifting these restrictions, particularly concerning the use of Storm Shadow missiles. Johnson emphasized that these missiles, which are capable of striking fortified targets, are critical for neutralizing Russian air bases responsible for launching attacks against Ukraine.

Analysis: Johnson’s advocacy reflects a broader debate within Western capitals about the scope and limits of military support for Ukraine. The former Prime Minister's argument is predicated on the belief that empowering Ukraine to strike Russian military infrastructure within Russia is essential to shifting the balance of power in the ongoing conflict. His reference to Winston Churchill highlights a historical parallel, suggesting that the UK should take a leadership role, even if it means acting independently of the United States.

The strategic implications of lifting the ban are significant. Allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets could potentially escalate the conflict, drawing a more severe response from Moscow. However, Johnson contends that this risk is outweighed by the necessity of allowing Ukraine to defend itself against an aggressor that has shown no willingness to de-escalate.

Johnson's position also points to a potential rift within NATO and Western alliances regarding how far military support for Ukraine should extend. While the UK has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine, the United States has reportedly expressed concerns about escalation, effectively blocking broader use of these missiles.

The situation remains fluid, with ongoing discussions likely to influence future Western policy decisions regarding military aid to Ukraine. The outcome of these discussions will have significant implications not only for the trajectory of the conflict but also for the unity and strategic direction of the Western alliance in its support for Ukraine.