Chad’s Controversial Election Sparks Political Unrest

Executive Summary

Chad’s ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) has won a majority in a contentious parliamentary election boycotted by major opposition parties. The vote, marred by allegations of fraud, follows President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s efforts to consolidate power after assuming leadership in 2021 following his father’s battlefield death. This political turbulence coincides with the expulsion of French troops and increasing security challenges, including a foiled attack on the presidency. These events underline Chad’s volatile political landscape and evolving international alliances.

Analysis

Chad’s December 2024 parliamentary election is being criticized as a move to legitimize President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s rule. Opposition groups, including the Transformers party, boycotted the elections, citing concerns about fairness. The results, which granted MPS 124 out of 188 seats, are seen as a continuation of Deby’s strategy to centralize power following his controversial ascension after the death of his father, Idriss Deby, in 2021.

The political unrest is exacerbated by Chad’s geopolitical pivot away from France, highlighted by the withdrawal of French troops in January 2025. Historically, French forces played a key role in supporting Chad’s leadership and combating insurgencies, but the expulsion aligns Chad with the growing anti-French sentiment across the Sahel. While this move boosts Deby’s popularity domestically, it risks creating a security vacuum that emboldens armed groups like Boko Haram and FACT (Front for Change and Concord in Chad).

The recent attack on the presidential palace, which resulted in 19 deaths, underscores the fragility of Chad’s security situation. Although government officials downplayed the incident, it highlights ongoing threats from rebel groups and internal divisions, particularly within the military. Deby’s survival of the attack and his government’s narrative of stability signal an intent to project strength despite growing challenges.

Chad’s expulsion of French troops and its exploration of ties with Russia and other non-traditional allies further emphasize its shift in foreign policy. However, the country’s dire economic conditions, reliance on patronage politics, and unresolved ethnic tensions raise questions about its capacity to maintain stability and effectively transition to democracy.

Sources

• Al Jazeera: Chad ruling party wins majority in controversial parliamentary election

• RFI: France hands over second army base in Chad ahead of 31 January deadline

• Al Jazeera: Why is Chad boiling over ahead of long-awaited elections — and what’s next?

• Al Jazeera: Chad’s presidency attacked: Coup attempt, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters?