Key Judgment:

China's reiteration that nuclear weapons should not be used, in response to Russia's signals of changing its nuclear war policy, underscores Beijing's firm stance on nuclear non-proliferation. This stance highlights the growing divergence between China and Russia's strategic interests, particularly as Russia grapples with escalating conflict in Ukraine and increasing isolation on the global stage.

Supporting Evidence:

1. China's Stance on Nuclear Weapons: China has consistently emphasized the importance of nuclear non-proliferation. In the wake of Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov's announcement that Russia may revise its nuclear doctrine, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterated the position that nuclear weapons should not be used under any circumstances. This aligns with China's long-standing policy that nuclear weapons should serve only defensive purposes and act as a deterrent to prevent war.

2. Russia's Shift in Nuclear Doctrine: Russia's indication that it may change its nuclear policy is a response to what it views as Western escalation in the Ukraine conflict. However, this move has raised alarms internationally, particularly in China, which has been vocal about the catastrophic consequences of nuclear warfare. China's repeated calls for restraint and dialogue highlight its concern over any lowering of the threshold for nuclear weapon use, a move that could destabilize global security.

3. Diverging Strategic Interests: While China and Russia have been quasi-allies, especially in their shared opposition to Western influence, the potential revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine reveals growing cracks in their relationship. China’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation contrasts sharply with Russia's increasingly aggressive nuclear rhetoric, suggesting a divergence in their strategic interests as the Ukraine conflict intensifies.

4. Impact on Global Security: The potential change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine has significant implications for global security. China's public stance against the use of nuclear weapons may influence other nations' responses and could add pressure on Russia to reconsider its position. Moreover, China's call for de-escalation and dialogue aligns with its broader goal of maintaining regional stability and preventing the conflict from spiraling into a global crisis.

Implications:

China's response to Russia's nuclear policy shift may strain the relationship between the two nations, particularly as China positions itself as a responsible global power committed to nuclear non-proliferation. This divergence could lead to a recalibration of their strategic partnership, with China potentially distancing itself from Russia's more aggressive military policies. Furthermore, China's stance may influence other global powers to reinforce non-proliferation efforts, increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia to avoid any actions that could escalate the conflict in Ukraine into a nuclear confrontation.