China’s Strategic Moves Toward Taiwan: Amphibious Capabilities, Legal Tactics, and Military Preparations

Feb 5

Executive Summary

China’s recent military developments highlight its growing capability to conduct a large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, with new jack-up barges and commercial roll-on/roll-off (RO/RO) ferries playing a crucial role in potential beach landings. These assets, ostensibly civilian in nature, blur the lines between military and commercial operations and could enhance the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) logistical capabilities in an invasion scenario.

Meanwhile, Taiwan is countering Chinese aggression not only through military preparedness but also by leveraging international law as part of a “counter-lawfare” strategy. Legal frameworks could help Taiwan bolster its legitimacy on the global stage while framing China’s actions as violations of international norms.

Amid these developments, tensions continue to escalate as China expands its military infrastructure, including the construction of a massive wartime command center in Beijing and the fortification of over 134 air bases near Taiwan. Analysts warn that China’s growing military-industrial complex, combined with strategic deception, cyber warfare, and economic stockpiling, points to preparation for potential conflict within the next decade.

Analysis

China’s Expanding Amphibious Capabilities

A recent image circulating on Chinese social media shows a commercial RO/RO ferry connected to a temporary pier via a jack-up barge—one of many under construction in southeastern China. These barges, featuring built-in ramps, could significantly accelerate China’s ability to move troops and heavy equipment from ship to shore, particularly in contested beach landings.

Satellite imagery confirms that multiple jack-up barges with varying support structures (ranging from four to eight legs) are being developed at Guangzhou Shipyard International (GSI). These vessels could play a pivotal role in bypassing destroyed ports during an invasion, allowing for rapid offloading of military assets.

The PLA has been refining its use of commercial ships for military operations for years, incorporating civilian RO/RO ferries into military exercises to supplement its amphibious capabilities. The Pentagon’s latest assessment notes that, although China has not expanded its fleet of traditional landing ships, it has “mitigated shortfalls through investment in civilian lift vessels and ship-to-shore connectors.”

Taiwan’s Counter-Lawfare Strategy

While Taiwan lacks the sheer military might to go toe-to-toe with China, it is increasingly turning to international law as a defensive tool. By framing China’s military provocations as violations of international norms, Taiwan seeks to garner broader diplomatic support and legitimacy.

Key elements of Taiwan’s counter-lawfare strategy include:

Challenging China’s claims: Despite Beijing’s insistence that Taiwan is a domestic matter, international law supports Taiwan’s ability to function as an independent entity.
Highlighting China’s aggression: Any military action against Taiwan would likely constitute a violation of Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter, which prohibits the use of force in international relations.
Strengthening legal defenses: Taiwan is refining its military’s rules of engagement under the Geneva Conventions to ensure legal protections in case of conflict.

By leveraging international law, Taiwan aims to put China in a legal and diplomatic bind, making any military action against the island more difficult to justify.

China’s Military Buildup and Strategic Preparations

Beyond amphibious capabilities, China is engaged in an unprecedented military expansion, with multiple indicators pointing to a long-term strategy for a Taiwan invasion:

Wartime Command Center: China is constructing a massive underground command facility in western Beijing, ten times the size of the Pentagon. U.S. intelligence believes this will serve as a wartime nerve center for military operations.
Air Base Expansion: China now operates 134 air bases within 1,000 nautical miles of Taiwan, featuring over 650 hardened aircraft shelters. This expansion significantly enhances China’s ability to sustain prolonged air operations in a conflict scenario.
Cyber Warfare: U.S. officials confirmed that China’s “Salt Typhoon” cyberattack targeted American telecommunications, reinforcing concerns that Beijing is preparing for first-strike capabilities in a Taiwan conflict.
Economic Stockpiling: China is hoarding key resources, including fuel, grain, and industrial metals, in what analysts interpret as war preparations. Beijing’s goal appears to be minimizing reliance on Western imports in the event of sanctions.

Can China Successfully Invade Taiwan?

Despite its rapid military buildup, China faces significant obstacles in mounting a full-scale invasion of Taiwan:

Taiwan’s Fortified Defenses: The island’s major ports are heavily fortified with naval mines, missile systems, and urban warfare defenses designed to repel a landing force.
U.S. and Allied Support: The U.S. has increased arms sales to Taiwan, including advanced missile systems, and has deployed military assets to nearby regions, including the Philippines and Japan’s Nansei Islands.
Historical Precedents: Analysts compare Taiwan’s defensive posture to historical cases such as the failed French invasion of Taiwan in 1884-85, where superior naval forces struggled against determined defenders.

While some U.S. officials initially warned that China could attempt an invasion by 2027, more recent assessments suggest Beijing is not yet confident in its ability to execute such an operation without severe consequences.

Future Outlook

China’s strategic deception, cyber operations, and military expansion suggest that while a Taiwan invasion is not imminent, Beijing is steadily preparing for the possibility. Meanwhile, Taiwan is strengthening its defenses, both militarily and diplomatically, to deter aggression.

The coming years will be critical in determining whether China continues its buildup toward war or whether Taiwan and its allies can successfully deter Beijing through a combination of military readiness, legal strategy, and economic resilience.