Key Judgement:

China's recent threat to cut off Dutch chipmaker ASML from its lucrative market, in response to new U.S.-influenced export curbs, marks a significant escalation in the global semiconductor industry conflict. This move could destabilize existing supply chains, further intensify the geopolitical rift between China and Western nations, and accelerate China's push towards self-sufficiency in advanced chip technologies. The potential exclusion of ASML from the Chinese market could not only lead to substantial economic losses for the company but might also trigger a realignment of power within the semiconductor industry, as Chinese firms like SMIC and Huawei gain momentum in closing the technological gap with industry leaders such as Taiwan's TSMC.

Supporting Evidence:

1. China's Market Influence on ASML: ASML, Europe's most valuable tech firm and a critical supplier in the global chip industry, derives nearly half of its sales from China. The threat from China to cut off access to this market would have significant economic repercussions for ASML, potentially reducing its global market share and weakening its dominant position in the semiconductor industry. This threat is compounded by China's history of leveraging state-backed media to signal potential policy actions, as seen with the Global Times' recent commentary.

2. Escalation of the U.S.-China Chip Conflict: The latest U.S. export curbs, which reportedly aim to prevent ASML from maintaining or selling spare parts for its DUV lithography machines to China, represent a new front in the ongoing chip war between the U.S. and China. This comes on the heels of previous restrictions that have already limited China's access to ASML's most advanced EUV machines. These curbs are intended to stifle China's ability to produce advanced semiconductors, a critical component in both consumer electronics and military technologies.

3. China's Retaliatory Measures and Strategic Shift: In response to these curbs, China has signaled its intent to accelerate its efforts to become self-sufficient in semiconductor production. The country is investing tens of billions of dollars into its domestic chip industry, aiming to close the technological gap with leaders like TSMC. Moreover, China's retaliatory measures against American chipmakers such as Intel and AMD, which have already resulted in significant financial losses, further highlight the escalating nature of this conflict.

4. Potential Impact on the Global Semiconductor Market: Should ASML lose access to the Chinese market, it could trigger a significant shift in the semiconductor industry. Chinese firms, bolstered by state investment and motivated by the need to overcome technological hurdles, could make substantial gains in the market. This shift might realign the balance of power within the industry, potentially diminishing Western influence and altering global supply chains.

Implications:

The threat posed by China to ASML underscores the fragile and interdependent nature of the global semiconductor supply chain. If ASML were to lose access to the Chinese market, it would not only suffer economically but could also face challenges from emerging Chinese competitors, which are rapidly advancing in their technological capabilities. The intensification of the U.S.-China chip war may push China to achieve greater self-reliance, potentially leading to a more bifurcated global technology landscape. This situation could result in increased geopolitical tensions, with long-term consequences for global trade, economic stability, and technological innovation.