Colombia’s Crisis: Rising Violence, Drug Cartels, and Diplomatic Clashes with the U.S.

Feb 2

Executive Summary

Colombia is facing an intense security and diplomatic crisis as violent clashes between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the 33rd Front, a dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), have left at least 80 dead and displaced over 32,000 in the Catatumbo region. The violence, fueled by competition over drug trafficking routes and cocoa plantations, has forced President Gustavo Petro to declare a state of emergency, granting himself broad powers to restore order.

At the same time, tensions between Colombia and the United States have escalated after Petro refused to allow U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombian nationals to land, prompting President Donald Trump to impose emergency tariffs on Colombian imports. The diplomatic standoff underscores shifting U.S. policy toward Latin America, with Trump also accusing Panama of violating the Panama Canal Treaty and hinting at reclaiming control over the canal.

With violence spilling over into Venezuela and criminal organizations expanding their influence across the region, Colombia’s internal turmoil is shaping broader geopolitical dynamics in Latin America. As armed groups continue to challenge state authority, diplomatic strains between Bogotá and Washington raise questions about the future of regional security and economic stability.

Analysis

Surging Violence and Petro’s Response

The renewed conflict between ELN and the 33rd Front is one of the deadliest escalations since the 2016 peace accord that formally ended FARC’s insurgency. ELN, which has evolved from a leftist guerrilla movement into a major drug-trafficking organization, is battling dissident FARC factions for control of lucrative smuggling routes in Catatumbo. Reports indicate that ELN fighters have been executing civilians suspected of ties to rival groups, conducting house-to-house killings, and using heavy weaponry in clashes.

President Petro, who campaigned on a platform of “Total Peace,” has struggled to maintain his approach as violence spirals out of control. His administration initially negotiated a year-long ceasefire with ELN, but recent events forced him to suspend peace talks and reinstate arrest warrants for ELN leaders. While 5,000 troops have been deployed to Catatumbo, the military response has been limited, focusing on defensive measures rather than launching full-scale operations to dismantle rebel strongholds.

The humanitarian consequences are dire, with thousands of civilians fleeing their homes. Many have sought refuge in Venezuelan towns or overcrowded shelters in Colombia’s Norte de Santander region. Human rights organizations warn of worsening conditions, with reports of disease outbreaks in makeshift refugee camps and civilians facing threats from both rebel groups and Colombian security forces.

U.S.-Colombia Diplomatic Rift

While Colombia battles internal violence, a separate crisis has erupted between Bogotá and Washington. Petro’s refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombians to land sparked a major diplomatic dispute with President Trump. Petro argued that the deportees were treated inhumanely, shackled and transported via military planes rather than civilian flights.

Trump reacted swiftly, imposing an emergency 25% tariff on Colombian imports, with the threat of raising it to 50% if Colombia refused to accept the deportees. Additional measures included travel bans on Colombian officials, visa revocations, and intensified customs inspections on Colombian goods and travelers. Facing potential economic disaster, Petro ultimately conceded and agreed to accept the deportees, leading to a suspension of the tariff escalation.

Regional Ramifications

The diplomatic rift between Colombia and the U.S. has sent ripples across Latin America. Petro’s handling of the crisis has drawn scrutiny from regional leaders, with some countries initially planning an emergency summit to discuss migration and security concerns, though the meeting was ultimately canceled due to lack of participation. Meanwhile, Trump’s approach to Latin America appears increasingly confrontational. His accusations against Panama regarding the management of the Panama Canal, coupled with hints at potential U.S. intervention, have further raised tensions.

Additionally, Venezuela’s role in Colombia’s crisis remains a contentious issue. While Petro has called for cooperation with Venezuela to stabilize the border, critics argue that Nicolás Maduro’s government actively harbors and supports ELN militants. Intelligence reports suggest that ELN leaders operate freely within Venezuela, with the Maduro regime profiting from the drug trade that fuels the insurgency. The involvement of Venezuela, combined with the spread of transnational criminal organizations like Tren de Aragua, underscores the broader instability gripping the region.

The Growing Role of Cartels and Armed Groups

Colombia’s crisis is not isolated—it is part of a larger pattern of cartel-driven violence reshaping Latin America. Powerful criminal organizations such as the First Capital Command and Red Command in Brazil, Los Lobos in Ecuador, Tren de Aragua in Venezuela, and Mexico’s Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels continue to expand their influence. These groups exploit weak state institutions, fueling corruption, violence, and migration crises.

The increasing use of sophisticated weaponry, including drones armed with explosives, has added a new dimension to the conflict. A recent drone attack in Colombia’s Cauca region killed a 10-year-old boy, marking the first lethal drone strike in the country. Guerrilla groups are rapidly adopting this technology, mirroring tactics seen in other global conflicts. The Colombian military, in turn, is utilizing drones for surveillance and counterinsurgency operations.

Future Outlook

Colombia stands at a crossroads. If Petro’s military response remains defensive and limited, ELN and dissident FARC factions may continue to expand their territorial control, further destabilizing the country. His “Total Peace” strategy faces critical setbacks, and without significant progress, political opposition to his administration could intensify.

On the diplomatic front, Trump’s aggressive stance toward Colombia signals a shift in U.S.-Latin American relations. If economic pressure tactics continue, Colombia could seek alternative trade partners, potentially strengthening its ties with China or other regional powers. However, given Colombia’s historical security cooperation with the U.S., a complete breakdown in relations remains unlikely.

With escalating violence, deepening diplomatic tensions, and the growing power of criminal organizations, Colombia’s future remains uncertain. The coming months will test whether Petro can balance military action with his broader peace agenda while navigating a volatile relationship with the United States.