Executive Summary

The 2024 U.S. General Elections are poised to face an intricate and volatile threat landscape. This assessment synthesizes intelligence from multiple sources to identify and evaluate key risks that may impact the electoral process, encompassing cyber threats, domestic and foreign influence operations, and physical security challenges. The confluence of domestic extremism, foreign adversary tactics, and the increasing role of cyber warfare will necessitate coordinated and vigilant responses at federal, state, and local levels.

Key Threats and Risk Areas

1. Domestic Extremism and Political Violence

   • Threat Overview: Domestic extremists, particularly those associated with White Racially Motivated Extremists (WRMEs), anti-government groups, and anarchist factions, are likely to exploit the election period to amplify their agendas. These groups may target polling stations, campaign events, and other election-related gatherings.

   • Risk Factors: Historical data shows a surge in violent activities during politically charged events, as seen in the January 6 Capitol riot and other recent violent protests. The polarized political environment is likely to exacerbate these risks.

   • Mitigation: Enhanced security measures at polling stations, intelligence-sharing between federal and local agencies, and proactive monitoring of social media for threats are crucial.

2. Foreign Interference and Influence Operations

   • Threat Overview: Foreign adversaries, notably Russia, China, and Iran, continue to pose significant threats to the electoral process through cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and efforts to undermine public trust in democratic institutions. These actors are expected to leverage social media, cyber tools, and potentially insider threats to influence the election outcome.

   • Risk Factors: The rise of sophisticated deepfake technology and the proliferation of disinformation across multiple platforms increase the potential impact of foreign influence operations.

   • Mitigation: Strengthening cybersecurity measures, public awareness campaigns, and collaboration with social media companies to detect and counter disinformation are essential. Regular updates and training for election officials on recognizing and mitigating influence operations will also be necessary.

3. Cybersecurity Threats

   • Threat Overview: Cyber threats to the 2024 elections are expected to come from nation-state actors, cybercriminal syndicates, and hacktivist groups. These threats include potential attacks on voter databases, election management systems, and the dissemination of ransomware or other malicious software.

   • Risk Factors: The decentralized nature of U.S. election infrastructure presents vulnerabilities that could be exploited by both foreign and domestic actors. The use of outdated systems and the inconsistent cybersecurity practices across states further exacerbate these risks.

   • Mitigation: Implementing uniform cybersecurity protocols across all states, conducting regular vulnerability assessments, and establishing rapid response teams for cyber incidents will be critical. Additionally, investing in secure, resilient voting technology and infrastructure will help mitigate the risk.

4. Misinformation and Disinformation

   • Threat Overview: The spread of misinformation and disinformation poses a significant risk to the integrity of the 2024 elections. This includes false information about voting procedures, candidate policies, and election outcomes, which could lead to voter suppression, unrest, or loss of confidence in the electoral process.

   • Risk Factors: The highly polarized political climate and the increasing use of alternative media platforms that lack effective moderation create fertile ground for misinformation to spread rapidly.

   • Mitigation: Public education campaigns that emphasize media literacy, collaboration with fact-checking organizations, and the use of legal tools to counteract disinformation are essential strategies. Coordination with social media platforms to quickly identify and remove false content will also be crucial.

5. Physical Security Threats

   • Threat Overview: Physical threats to the 2024 elections include potential attacks on polling stations, election workers, and voters by extremist groups or lone actors. These threats may manifest through violence, intimidation, or sabotage.

   • Risk Factors: Past incidents, such as the 2020 election-related violence and recent attacks on public institutions, suggest that polling stations, particularly in swing states or politically contentious areas, are at heightened risk.

   • Mitigation: Increased physical security at polling stations, training for election workers on handling security incidents, and the presence of law enforcement or private security at high-risk locations are recommended.

6. Legal and Procedural Challenges

   • Threat Overview: The 2024 elections may face significant legal challenges, including disputes over voter eligibility, vote counting, and election results. These challenges could delay the certification of election results and undermine public confidence.

   • Risk Factors: The use of litigation as a tool to contest election outcomes, combined with a lack of clear and consistent legal frameworks across states, could lead to prolonged legal battles and uncertainty.

   • Mitigation: Establishing clear legal guidelines and procedures for resolving election disputes, ensuring transparency in the vote-counting process, and preparing for potential legal challenges with contingency plans are essential.

Conclusion

The 2024 General Elections in the United States will be conducted in an environment of heightened risk, with multiple threat vectors that could impact the security and integrity of the electoral process. It is imperative that federal, state, and local authorities work in unison, leveraging intelligence, cybersecurity, and physical security measures to protect the elections from these threats. Public trust in the electoral process is paramount, and maintaining it will require vigilance, preparation, and a proactive approach to mitigating the identified risks.

Recommendations

1. Strengthen Collaboration: Increase coordination between federal, state, and local agencies, as well as private sector partners, to ensure a unified response to threats.

2. Enhance Public Communication: Develop and implement a robust public communication strategy to counter misinformation and build public confidence in the electoral process.

3. Invest in Security Infrastructure: Allocate resources to enhance both physical and cybersecurity infrastructure, particularly in high-risk areas.

4. Conduct Regular Training: Provide continuous training for election officials and law enforcement on threat recognition, response protocols, and legal frameworks.

5. Monitor and Adapt: Continuously monitor the threat landscape and adapt strategies as needed to address emerging threats in real-time.