Executive Summary

Iran and Russia have increasingly relied on state-sponsored assassination plots to eliminate political opponents, dissidents, and defectors, targeting individuals both domestically and abroad. These operations, executed through criminal networks and proxy actors, have escalated in scope and sophistication, posing a growing threat to international security. With their intelligence agencies playing pivotal roles, both nations have cultivated covert channels to conduct these operations, often evading direct attribution. This report delves into the recent rise in these assassination attempts, the tactics employed, and the broader geopolitical implications of these covert actions.

Analysis

The resurgence of state-sponsored assassinations, particularly by Iran and Russia, reflects a strategic shift by these regimes to employ more clandestine methods to eliminate opposition and assert geopolitical influence. Both Tehran and Moscow have turned to organized crime, mercenaries, and intelligence assets to execute plots that target dissidents, defectors, political figures, and ethnic or religious minorities.

Iran’s Expanding Assassination Campaign

Iran's use of state-sponsored assassination has a long history, but recent years have seen a significant escalation in the scope and frequency of these plots. The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are the primary actors behind these covert operations. By outsourcing the execution of assassinations to criminal groups, Iran ensures plausible deniability while achieving its objectives.

One of the most prominent cases involving Iranian state-sponsored assassination was the plot orchestrated by Naji Sharifi Zindashti, an Iranian drug trafficker with close ties to MOIS. Zindashti recruited members of the Hells Angels motorcycle gang to carry out an assassination in the United States. The target, an Iranian defector residing in Maryland, had previously fled Iran due to his opposition to the regime. U.S. authorities successfully foiled the plot, but the incident highlighted Tehran's reliance on criminal organizations to carry out its operations. The connection between Zindashti and the Iranian intelligence apparatus demonstrates Tehran's willingness to blur the lines between state and criminal activity​.

In Europe, Iran has similarly extended its reach, with intelligence agencies uncovering numerous assassination plots targeting Jewish and Israeli communities. French authorities recently thwarted an Iranian-backed plan to assassinate several individuals in Paris, Munich, and Berlin. This plot, which aimed to create insecurity within Jewish and Israeli communities, is emblematic of Iran’s broader strategy of using assassinations to silence opposition and strike fear into groups linked to its adversaries. These attacks, often disguised as criminal acts, are part of a wider campaign by the Iranian regime to undermine its opponents abroad​.

Beyond individual targets, Iran has also plotted high-profile assassinations in Western countries, including an attempt on the life of Masih Alinejad, an Iranian-American journalist and dissident living in New York. The plan, which involved kidnapping and potentially killing Alinejad, was part of Iran’s broader effort to silence voices critical of the regime, particularly those with platforms in Western media​.

Russia’s Covert Assassination Tactics

Russia’s history of state-sponsored assassinations is well-documented, with the Kremlin using similar methods as Iran to carry out its covert operations. Recent intelligence suggests that Moscow, much like Tehran, has increasingly turned to criminal networks and mercenaries to execute these killings. Russian intelligence agencies, particularly the FSB and GRU, have been linked to assassination attempts both in Europe and within Russia’s neighboring states.

One of the more publicized cases is the revelation that Ukrainian intelligence made multiple attempts to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although these attempts were unsuccessful, they underscored the lengths to which Russia’s enemies are willing to go in response to Moscow’s aggressive foreign policies. Russia, in turn, has accused the U.S. of funding Ukrainian assassination attempts on Putin, further escalating tensions between the two superpowers. These accusations reflect Moscow's broader strategy of blaming external actors for domestic unrest while attempting to neutralize perceived threats through covert action.

Russia’s use of criminal organizations to carry out assassinations has become a central element of its foreign policy. The recruitment of mercenaries, particularly within the context of the war in Ukraine, has provided Moscow with a layer of deniability. Russian intelligence agencies have frequently leveraged criminal networks to eliminate political figures and defectors in Europe. For instance, in 2024, MI5, the UK’s domestic intelligence agency, reported a staggering 48% increase in state-sponsored assassination plots, with Russia and Iran being primary culprits. These plots, often involving criminal elements recruited by Moscow, have targeted political dissidents and opposition figures residing in Western Europe​.

One striking similarity between the Iranian and Russian assassination efforts is the use of technology to facilitate their operations. Both nations have employed encrypted communication platforms to coordinate their plots. For example, Iranian operatives communicated with Hells Angels members through encrypted messaging services to arrange assassinations, while Russian agents have utilized similar technologies to coordinate attacks on defectors and political opponents abroad. The use of technology not only enables these regimes to obscure their involvement but also complicates the efforts of law enforcement agencies trying to trace these operations back to state actors​.

The Geopolitical Impact

The rising frequency of these assassination plots has profound implications for international security. Both Iran and Russia have demonstrated a willingness to extend their influence far beyond their borders, using covert methods to target individuals who pose a threat to their regimes. These actions threaten the stability of both regional and global security, as they create an environment where political dissent can be met with lethal force, even on foreign soil.

Iran’s assassination plots, particularly those targeting Jewish and Israeli communities, are likely to exacerbate tensions between Tehran and Western nations. Iran's willingness to target ethnic and religious minorities further inflames long-standing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in regions where Iranian influence is already a source of tension. Similarly, Russia’s assassination attempts, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, represent a broader strategy to destabilize political systems and eliminate opposition figures.

Both countries' reliance on criminal organizations not only reflects their willingness to operate outside the bounds of international law but also complicates the global response to these activities. By outsourcing assassination attempts to non-state actors, Iran and Russia are able to distance themselves from direct involvement, making it difficult for the international community to hold them accountable.

Final Thoughts

The rise in state-sponsored assassination plots by Iran and Russia presents an escalating challenge for international security. Both regimes have effectively weaponized criminal networks and proxy actors, allowing them to carry out these operations while maintaining plausible deniability. As these nations continue to refine their methods, the global community must prioritize enhanced intelligence-sharing, cyber capabilities, and collaborative law enforcement efforts to counteract these covert threats. Left unchecked, these assassination plots will only further destabilize regions and embolden these regimes to continue targeting political opponents and dissidents abroad.

Sources

• "2 Russian Spies Sentenced Over Montenegro Coup and Assassination Plot," Associated Press, May 9, 2019.

• "Biden Warns Iran That U.S. Would Consider Assassination Attempts on Trump as Act of War," Oleksandra Zimko, RBC-Ukraine, October 12, 2024.

• "Canadian Hells Angels Members Indicted in U.S. Case Against Iran for Assassination Plot," Adrian Morrow and Robert Fife, The Globe and Mail, January 30, 2024.

• "DOJ Says It Has Foiled 4 State-Sponsored Murder Attempts Since 2022," Ryan Lucas, NPR, February 25, 2024.

• "Iran’s Assassination Plots Against Jews Persist Despite the West’s Leniency on Regime," Janatan Sayeh, The Algemeiner, September 17, 2024.

• "Iranian Assassination Attempt on Officials Thwarted by Police, Israel Says," Brad Dress, The Hill, September 19, 2024.

• "Iranian Intelligence Used Narco Trafficker to Recruit Hells Angel for Planned Assassination," Alexander Martin, Recorded Future News, January 29, 2024.

• "Moscow and Tehran Are Behind Spike in Terror Plots, MI5 Spy Chief Says," Tamsin Paternoster, Euronews, October 8, 2024.

• "Russia Accuses U.S. of Bankrolling Ukrainian Attempts to Assassinate Putin," The Times of Israel, July 15, 2024.