Foreign Threats to the Election: China and Russia Are Not the Only Players in the Game

OSINT Report

Oct 9

Overview:

While much of the focus on foreign interference in U.S. elections centers around state actors like China and Russia, the threat landscape has expanded to include non-state actors such as ISIS. Recent events have revealed the persistence of ISIS-inspired plots targeting the U.S. election process. A prominent example is the recent arrest of Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, an Afghan national residing in Oklahoma, who conspired to carry out an Election Day terrorist attack. This case is part of a broader, ongoing effort by ISIS to destabilize Western nations by targeting critical events such as elections.

Intel:

ISIS-Inspired Election Day Plot: The case of Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi illustrates ISIS’s continuing influence. Tawhedi, along with a juvenile accomplice, planned a terrorist attack on Election Day, aiming to cause mass casualties at large gatherings. The plot was disrupted by the FBI, who tracked Tawhedi’s online activity and interactions with ISIS recruiters through Telegram. Tawhedi had acquired firearms and ammunition, planned to liquidate his assets, and made arrangements for his family to leave the country prior to the attack.
Previous ISIS-Inspired Threats: The threat posed by ISIS is not an isolated case. In August 2024, Canadian authorities thwarted a plot in Toronto involving Mostafa Eldidi and his father, who had planned an ISIS-inspired attack using machetes and axes. Similarly, in September 2024, U.S. authorities charged Muhammad Shahzeb Khan with planning a mass shooting at a Jewish center in New York City. Khan’s plot, which was set to coincide with significant Jewish holidays, was disrupted by the collaborative efforts of U.S. and Canadian law enforcement. These incidents demonstrate the persistent and adaptive nature of ISIS’s recruitment and operational strategies, emphasizing the ongoing threat posed by lone actors or small cells inspired by extremist ideologies.
Digital Platforms and Encrypted Communication: The use of encrypted platforms like Telegram continues to play a pivotal role in ISIS’s ability to recruit and direct potential attackers remotely. In each of the recent cases, including Tawhedi’s, ISIS recruiters used digital platforms to encourage attacks on U.S. soil. Tawhedi’s research into gun laws, his viewing of surveillance cameras in Washington, D.C., and his discussions on purchasing weapons were all facilitated by his online activities. These platforms allow for covert communication, making it challenging for law enforcement to intercept plots before they progress to actionable stages.
Election Day as a Target: The timing of the planned attacks underscores the significance of Election Day as a target for extremist groups. By targeting high-profile events, ISIS aims to maximize media attention and create widespread fear. Tawhedi’s plan, like other recent plots, reflects ISIS’s strategic focus on using symbolic events to incite chaos and undermine public confidence in national security. The arrest of Tawhedi just weeks before the election is a reminder that while state actors like China and Russia use disinformation and influence operations, groups like ISIS continue to pose a physical threat through acts of terrorism.
The Broader Foreign Threat: While China and Russia use more covert methods such as disinformation and hacking, ISIS’s approach remains rooted in violent extremism. The overlapping nature of these threats creates a complex security environment for the U.S., as foreign adversaries employ both indirect and direct methods of influence and disruption. The combination of cyber operations from state actors and physical threats from non-state actors like ISIS means that securing the election requires a multi-layered approach, from intelligence-sharing to enhanced cyber and physical security measures.