Future Governance of Gaza Almost Certainly to be Challenged by Regional Tensions and Governance Gaps
Key Judgments
The future governance of Gaza is expected to face significant challenges due to regional tensions, internal Palestinian divisions, and the potential for a governance vacuum. The instability may lead to prolonged humanitarian crises and complicate efforts for a sustainable political solution in the region.
Supporting Evidence
Following the recent conflict, various proposals for Gaza's future governance have emerged, each fraught with complexities. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has emphasized the need for clear, achievable governance plans to prevent a power vacuum, which could lead to chaos and further instability. Blinken warned that without a concrete governance plan, the region risks either an Israeli occupation, continued Hamas control, or complete lawlessness (Jewish Insider).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed a multi-phase plan for Gaza's governance, which includes initial humanitarian aid, a transition to an internationally supervised Gaza Rehabilitation Authority, and eventual self-governance contingent on demilitarization and deradicalization efforts. However, this plan faces skepticism and resistance from various stakeholders, including regional Arab neighbors and internal Palestinian factions (The Jerusalem Post) (DW).
The involvement of the Arab Quint (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar) is crucial but conditional. These nations have indicated their willingness to participate in governance and reconstruction efforts only if there is progress towards a viable two-state solution. This stance reflects the broader regional insistence on addressing the Palestinian issue comprehensively (DW).
Implications
The challenges to establishing effective governance in Gaza are likely to perpetuate regional instability. The potential governance vacuum could be exploited by extremist groups, further complicating security and humanitarian conditions. The division between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) adds another layer of complexity, making it difficult to achieve a unified governance structure.
International and regional actors must navigate these complexities carefully to avoid exacerbating tensions. The success of any governance plan will depend on coordinated efforts among local, regional, and international stakeholders, as well as significant investments in rebuilding infrastructure and fostering economic development.
Recommendations
Promote Inclusive Governance Solutions: Encourage dialogue among Palestinian factions, including Hamas and the PA, to develop a unified approach to governance in Gaza. International mediators should facilitate these discussions to ensure broad-based support.
Enhance Humanitarian Aid and Reconstruction Efforts: Prioritize immediate humanitarian relief and long-term reconstruction projects. This includes rebuilding infrastructure, healthcare, and educational facilities, which are critical for stabilizing the region.
Strengthen Regional Cooperation: Engage regional powers in a coordinated effort to support Gaza's governance and reconstruction. This could involve forming a multinational coalition to oversee and assist in governance efforts while ensuring security and stability.
Ensure Security and Demilitarization: Implement measures to demilitarize Gaza and prevent the re-emergence of militant groups. This requires a robust international security presence and cooperation with local security forces.
Promote Economic Development: Invest in economic initiatives that provide employment opportunities and improve living conditions in Gaza. Economic stability is essential for long-term peace and governance.
