Key Judgment:

The Georgian government's proposal to ban virtually all significant opposition parties after the upcoming parliamentary elections could severely undermine the country's democratic institutions, likely resulting in the complete derailment of Georgia's EU membership aspirations and further aligning the country with authoritarian models seen in Russia and Belarus.

Supporting Evidence:

1. Government's Proposal to Ban Opposition Parties:

   • Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced plans to ban over half a dozen political parties, including the United National Movement (UNM) founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili. This move would effectively eliminate nearly all pro-Western factions from Georgian politics, concentrating power within the ruling Georgian Dream party. Kobakhidze claims this action is necessary to remove "criminal political forces" from power.

2. Historical and Political Context:

   • The proposed bans follow widespread protests against Georgian Dream's adoption of a Russian-style "foreign agents" law targeting Western-backed NGOs and media outlets. This law already signals a shift towards authoritarianism, which the proposed ban would solidify. Comparisons have been made to authoritarian regimes like those in Belarus and North Korea, where opposition parties are systematically suppressed.

3. Impact on Georgia’s EU Ambitions:

   • The European Union has already frozen Georgia’s application for membership due to concerns over backsliding on human rights and the rule of law. The proposed ban on opposition parties would almost certainly end Georgia's EU membership bid, as it would further deteriorate democratic governance and human rights standards—core prerequisites for EU accession.

4. Regional and International Repercussions:

   • Georgia’s move to suppress opposition could lead to increased tensions with Western allies, particularly the United States and European Union, both of which have been critical of Georgia's recent drift towards authoritarianism. The U.S. has already suspended financial aid to Georgia, citing concerns over its pivot toward Russia.

Implications:

Georgia’s potential banning of opposition parties could mark the end of its democracy, significantly damaging its relations with Western allies and closing the door on EU membership. This shift may push Georgia closer to Russia, further aligning it with authoritarian regimes in the region. The international community is likely to respond with increased diplomatic and economic pressure, potentially isolating Georgia from both European and broader global institutions.