Hamas and Israel on Brink of Ceasefire Collapse as Netanyahu Issues Ultimatum
Executive Summary
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that the ceasefire with Hamas will end if hostages are not released by Saturday, while Hamas accuses Israel of nearly 270 violations, including targeting civilians and obstructing humanitarian aid. U.S. President Donald Trump has reinforced the pressure, stating that if all hostages are not returned by the deadline, “all hell will break out.” Meanwhile, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has condemned Israeli military actions in the West Bank, vowing continued resistance.
Analysis
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, is rapidly unraveling as both sides escalate accusations. Israel’s threat to resume “intense fighting” suggests military operations are already being planned, while Hamas’ decision to delay hostage releases indicates they are using Israel’s alleged violations as leverage. This deadlock reflects deeper strategic calculations—Hamas seeks to prolong negotiations to secure more favorable terms, while Israel, under Netanyahu’s leadership, wants to demonstrate strength to domestic hardliners.
Trump’s intervention complicates the situation further. By setting an explicit deadline and threatening a return to full-scale war, he has aligned himself with Israel’s hardline stance while undermining the multi-phase negotiation structure. His endorsement of Gaza’s depopulation—framing it as a real estate opportunity—has further inflamed tensions, providing Hamas with additional justification for resistance and potentially galvanizing broader Palestinian and regional opposition.
PIJ’s involvement in the discourse, particularly its framing of Israeli actions as war crimes and ethnic cleansing, raises the likelihood of expanded hostilities beyond Gaza. The West Bank, already volatile, could become a second front, particularly if Israeli forces intensify operations there. The presence of U.S. mediation has not prevented either side from preparing for renewed conflict, and with Netanyahu and Trump now openly threatening escalation, the likelihood of a return to full-scale war grows by the day.
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