Date: August 24, 2024

Overview: Hamas has reportedly made a strategic decision to carry out attacks against Israelis abroad in retaliation for the killing of its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. This decision comes in response to the group's diminished capacity to launch effective attacks from Gaza due to ongoing conflict and Israeli military operations. The move marks a significant shift in Hamas's tactics, similar to those employed by Hezbollah, and poses an elevated threat to Israeli nationals and Jewish targets worldwide.

Analysis:

The reported decision by Hamas to target Israelis abroad represents a critical development in the ongoing conflict between the group and Israel. This strategy shift is likely driven by the group’s recognition of its reduced operational capacity within Gaza, where Israeli military actions over the past ten months have significantly degraded Hamas's ability to carry out large-scale attacks against Israel. As a result, Hamas is seeking alternative avenues to inflict harm on Israeli interests, extending its reach beyond the borders of Gaza.

Hamas's new strategy mirrors tactics historically employed by Hezbollah, which has a long history of targeting Israeli and Jewish sites abroad. Hezbollah's most notorious attack remains the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which resulted in 85 deaths. While Hamas has not previously had notable success in executing attacks abroad, this strategic pivot underscores the group's commitment to avenging Haniyeh’s death and continuing its conflict with Israel on a global scale.

The Tel Aviv suicide bombing on Lehi Road earlier this week, which resulted in the death of the bomber and the injury of a passerby, is believed to have been carried out by a Hamas operative from Nablus. The attack, while ultimately unsuccessful in causing mass casualties, is indicative of the lengths Hamas is willing to go to achieve its objectives. Reports indicate that the bomber, identified as Jaafar Mona, was a long-time Hamas activist. His failed attack in Tel Aviv and the subsequent flight of his brother to Turkey suggest a broader network of operatives who may be mobilized to conduct similar operations.

Hamas's potential shift towards international terrorism is not without precedent. In December 2023, members of a Hamas-linked network were arrested across Europe, accused of plotting attacks on Jewish targets and Israel's embassy in Sweden. This network reportedly had connections in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands and was planning to use drones and collaborate with European criminal organizations. The expansion of Hamas's operations into Europe underscores the group's global ambitions and the transnational nature of its networks.

The Israeli National Security Council has responded to these developments by issuing travel warnings for approximately 40 countries, cautioning that Israeli and Jewish sites abroad, including embassies, synagogues, and community centers, could be targeted. This warning highlights the increased risk posed by Hamas’s new strategy and the importance of heightened security measures for Israeli nationals and Jewish communities worldwide.

The targeting of Israelis abroad also indicates a possible collaboration or inspiration drawn from Hezbollah, which has a long history of such operations. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for the recent killing of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, an incident believed to be connected to Israeli operations. The synchronization of threats from both Hamas and Hezbollah suggests a coordinated effort to pressure Israel through global terrorism, increasing the stakes in this long-standing conflict.

The current geopolitical landscape, including Israel's ongoing military actions in Gaza and the broader Middle East, has created a volatile environment where non-state actors like Hamas feel compelled to demonstrate their relevance and capability through high-profile attacks. The international community, particularly countries with significant Israeli or Jewish populations, will need to remain vigilant as the likelihood of attacks outside of Israel increases.

Hamas's strategic decision to target Israelis abroad marks a dangerous escalation in its conflict with Israel. The potential for successful attacks remains high, particularly as Hamas seeks to avenge the death of Haniyeh and continue its struggle against Israel on a global stage. This development will require a coordinated international response to mitigate the risks posed by Hamas's expanded operational focus. The implications for international security are significant, as Hamas's activities could destabilize regions far beyond the Middle East, drawing in global powers and further complicating the already complex dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.