Holiday Threat Assessment – December 2024
Overview
As the 2024 holiday season unfolds, the risk of terrorism and targeted violence in both Europe and the United States is significantly heightened. This elevated threat level is fueled by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, ideological extremism, and the symbolic importance of the season. Key drivers include the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war, heightened radicalization efforts by jihadist groups, and an uptick in state-sponsored and domestic violent extremist activities. Public spaces such as Christmas markets, transportation hubs, and religious sites remain the most vulnerable targets, while sophisticated cyber and physical attacks against critical infrastructure persist as credible threats.
Key Threat Factors
The Middle East conflict, particularly the war in Gaza, has amplified extremist rhetoric globally. Jihadist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda have explicitly called for attacks on Jewish and Christian communities, exploiting the overlap of Christmas and Hanukkah to inspire violence. Since October 2023, jihadist-linked incidents in Europe have surged, with 38 reported attacks or plots compared to just nine in the previous year. France and Germany have borne the brunt of these activities, exemplified by attempted Christmas market bombings and targeted stabbings. In Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, authorities recently disrupted a plot to attack a holiday market, underscoring the persistent danger of lone-actor operations.
In Syria, the symbolic torching of a Christmas tree in Hama and subsequent protests highlight a broader trend of sectarian tensions spilling over into targeted violence. Syrian jihadist groups and clerics have sought to justify these acts, reflecting a regional dynamic that could embolden extremists in diaspora communities. Similarly, sermons from influential figures in the U.S., such as Orlando-based Imam Abu Usama At-Thahabi, who described Christmas as a "pagan holiday," contribute to a climate of hostility against holiday traditions, furthering extremist narratives that could radicalize individuals.
Domestic threats in the United States also demand attention. Recent attacks, such as the gruesome murder of a woman on a New York City subway, coupled with arrests of individuals linked to ISIS and Iranian networks, underscore a growing nexus of ideological and state-sponsored violence. Iranian proxies have reportedly expanded their operations, targeting critical infrastructure and individuals deemed hostile to Tehran’s regime. Arrests of individuals like Mahdi Sadeghi, who smuggled sensitive technology to Iran for drone operations, illustrate the dual-threat nature of state-linked actors—targeting both infrastructure and geopolitical rivals.
Amid these developments, attacks targeting public symbols and infrastructure remain a serious concern. Militants in the Jenin refugee camp have pledged suicide operations, while ISIS supporters online have circulated propaganda targeting holiday festivities and religious sites. This convergence of ideological, symbolic, and opportunistic targeting creates an unpredictable threat landscape.
Mitigation Efforts and Challenges
Authorities in Europe and the United States have implemented enhanced security measures at public gatherings, including Christmas markets and religious venues. In Western Europe, concrete barriers and bolstered surveillance have been deployed to prevent vehicle-ramming attacks, a tactic used in previous years. While these measures mitigate the likelihood of mass-casualty incidents, they cannot fully address the challenge posed by lone actors who require minimal coordination to carry out low-impact but high-profile attacks.
Counter-radicalization efforts remain critical, particularly as extremist groups capitalize on online platforms to amplify their messaging. Governments must also contend with the complexities of state-sponsored threats, which often blur the lines between traditional espionage and terrorism. In the United States, the arrest of several Iranian operatives underscores the importance of international intelligence cooperation in neutralizing such threats. Similarly, cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure demand greater investment in defensive capabilities to mitigate potential disruptions.
Outlook and Recommendations
The holiday season remains a period of heightened vulnerability, where public gatherings, symbolic events, and infrastructure serve as attractive targets for a diverse array of threat actors. The interplay of ideological extremism, geopolitical tensions, and domestic radicalization necessitates a multifaceted approach to security. While immediate measures focus on enhancing physical security and intelligence-sharing, long-term strategies must address the root causes of radicalization and bolster resilience against state-sponsored aggression.