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Strategic Analysis: How Does the Middle East Conflict End and What Does Israel Do Next?

Matt Helmkamp

Executive Summary:

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a critical juncture, with both sides escalating in response to a series of assassinations and missile strikes. Israel’s targeted assassinations of key Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian figures have been met with Iranian missile barrages, escalating tensions to unprecedented levels. While both countries claim they do not seek all-out war, the nature of their retaliatory strikes suggests a deeply entrenched strategic confrontation. This report delves into Israel’s strategic options moving forward, balancing military action with diplomatic pressures. Israel’s decisions will not only shape its security landscape but also potentially redraw geopolitical alliances in the region.

Intel:

Following Israel’s high-profile assassinations of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, Iran retaliated with a missile barrage targeting Israeli infrastructure. Despite the impressive interception rate of the Iron Dome system, Iran’s launch of 200 ballistic missiles — the second such attack in six months — signifies its determination to escalate unless Israel halts its assassinations of key figures. Israeli military officials have responded by initiating extensive military operations in Lebanon, killing over 1,000 Hezbollah fighters in recent weeks.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has convened with senior ministers and security advisors to determine the next phase of military action, which will likely target critical infrastructure within Iran. Possible targets include oil production facilities and nuclear installations, aiming to cripple Iran’s economic and military capabilities. The Biden administration has expressed support for Israel's military actions but urged caution, emphasizing the need for proportional responses to avoid further destabilization.

Meanwhile, Israel’s ongoing invasion of southern Lebanon seeks to neutralize Hezbollah, which has been severely weakened by recent Israeli operations. Netanyahu’s government must now decide how far to escalate its strikes on Iranian assets, particularly considering the risks of drawing other regional powers, like Syria and Iraq, into the conflict.

Analysis:

The conflict between Israel and Iran is no longer confined to proxy battles; it has evolved into direct military confrontation. Israel’s assassination of key figures in Hezbollah and Iran’s IRGC was intended to destabilize its adversaries, but it has also provoked a dangerous escalation. Iran’s missile strikes, though largely intercepted, demonstrate its willingness to engage Israel directly, marking a shift in its previous strategy of relying primarily on proxy forces.

Israel’s military superiority is evident in its effective targeting of Hezbollah and Iranian assets, but the broader question remains: Can Israel sustain an open-ended conflict with a regional power like Iran? Strikes on Iranian oil facilities or nuclear infrastructure would undoubtedly cripple Tehran’s economy, but such actions could also provoke wider regional war. Iran's significant missile capabilities, particularly its advanced Fattah-1 missiles, pose a considerable threat, and further Israeli strikes could trigger responses from Iran-backed militias across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

While Israel’s military strength provides it with tactical superiority, it is not immune to the broader geopolitical implications of its actions. Netanyahu’s government is under intense pressure to deliver decisive results, but prolonged conflict risks straining Israel’s military and economic resources. Hezbollah’s remaining missile arsenal, despite the loss of leadership, still presents a significant danger to Israel’s northern cities. A drawn-out campaign in Lebanon could mirror the costly 2006 Lebanon War, with high civilian casualties and limited strategic gains.

Diplomatically, Israel faces a precarious situation. While the U.S. remains a staunch ally, Washington has made it clear that it opposes any Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The Biden administration has emphasized that such actions could destabilize the entire region, drawing in other powers like Russia or China. Furthermore, U.S. diplomats are concerned about the humanitarian crisis developing in Gaza and southern Lebanon, as Israeli airstrikes have caused significant civilian casualties, leading to increasing international scrutiny.

Netanyahu’s internal political situation also complicates decision-making. While his government enjoys broad public support for its military actions, prolonged conflict could erode this support, particularly if civilian casualties in Gaza or Lebanon continue to rise. The Israeli public’s tolerance for long-term military engagements has its limits, and Netanyahu must balance the need for military victories with the risk of overreach.

Final Thoughts:

Given Israel’s historical responses to escalations with Iran and Hezbollah, its likely course of action involves several key steps. First, Israel will continue its precision airstrikes targeting Iranian oil and military infrastructure. Such actions would weaken Iran’s economic base, forcing Tehran to divert resources from its proxy network to domestic concerns. This move aligns with Israel’s strategy of destabilizing Iran economically while maintaining military pressure on its proxy forces.

Second, Israel is likely to conduct additional covert operations targeting IRGC officials and Iranian military leaders within the region. Such operations, particularly if successful, would further undermine Iran’s command structure, reducing its ability to coordinate large-scale retaliatory strikes.

Third, Israel will likely seek to consolidate its military gains in southern Lebanon by intensifying its ground operations against Hezbollah. The goal here is to create a buffer zone that neutralizes Hezbollah’s missile threat while securing Israel’s northern borders. This move would also signal to Iran that Israel is prepared to escalate on multiple fronts if necessary.

Despite its military successes, Israel is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of Iran. Such an action would risk drawing other regional powers into the conflict, a scenario that neither Israel nor the U.S. is prepared to handle. Instead, Israel will focus on limited, high-impact strikes designed to cripple Iran’s military infrastructure while avoiding a broader regional war.

Finally, Israel will leverage its strategic alliance with the U.S. to maintain diplomatic pressure on Iran. While Washington has cautioned against escalation, the U.S. remains committed to Israel’s security and will continue to provide military aid, particularly for missile defense systems like the Iron Dome. This support will be crucial in mitigating the impact of any future Iranian missile strikes.

In sum, Israel’s next moves will likely involve a combination of targeted military strikes, covert operations, and diplomatic maneuvering. These actions are designed to degrade Iran’s capabilities without provoking an all-out regional conflict, allowing Israel to maintain its military superiority while managing the broader geopolitical risks.

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