India Retaliates After Kashmir Massacre: Diplomatic Ties Severed, Border Sealed

Apr 24

Executive Summary

Following a brutal attack in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead — most of them tourists — India has taken swift and sweeping action against Pakistan. Authorities blamed the cross-border group The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be affiliated with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a banned Pakistani terror outfit. In response, India suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, expelled Pakistani military diplomats, and shut down the Attari-Wagah border. The violence — the deadliest in the region in decades — has reignited Indo-Pakistani tensions, with India accusing Islamabad of harboring and supporting militants, and Pakistan denying involvement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cutting short a foreign trip, convened an emergency security council meeting. The fallout threatens regional stability and risks escalating into broader conflict.

Analysis

The April 22 attack on civilians near Pahalgam marks a grim milestone in the Kashmir conflict. The targeting of tourists, including families and children, appears to be a calculated act by militants to destabilize the region’s fragile peace and reverse the economic revival since the 2019 abrogation of Kashmir’s autonomy. The Resistance Front, a shadowy group linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility, citing demographic shifts and resentment toward Indian control. Eyewitness accounts described execution-style shootings in the remote Baisaran Valley, prompting an outpouring of grief and fury across India.

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri swiftly announced a series of punitive steps, including revoking the Indus Waters Treaty — a foundational agreement critical to Pakistan’s water supply — and expelling Pakistani military attaches. Pakistani nationals in India under the SAARC visa exemption scheme were given 48 hours to leave. This unprecedented diplomatic retaliation, though stopping short of military engagement (for now), reflects growing Indian impatience with what it sees as Pakistan’s continued proxy warfare.

The attack occurred during a visit from U.S. Vice President JD Vance and shortly after Prime Minister Modi’s meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, further suggesting the timing was chosen to maximize diplomatic embarrassment for India. Historical parallels have been drawn to a similar massacre in 2000, just before President Clinton’s state visit. That event also coincided with a shift in Western policy away from viewing India and Pakistan as strategic equals — a shift India has tried to preserve and build on in the years since.

Meanwhile, the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a Pakistani national implicated in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, adds another layer of pressure on Pakistan. His handover to Indian custody by the U.S. is being touted in Delhi as a major diplomatic and judicial win. Together with the latest Kashmir attack, these events put the spotlight back on Pakistan’s record of tolerating or facilitating terror actors — a narrative India will likely push hard in the coming weeks.

This attack could also derail what little progress has been made in Indo-Pak relations since their 2021 ceasefire recommitment. The economic normalization and regional integration India has championed — from tourism growth in Kashmir to energy diplomacy with the Gulf states — now hang in the balance. With elections looming in both countries, and nationalist rhetoric rising, the space for de-escalation is narrowing fast.