Internal Power Struggles in Iran Likely to Undermine Reformist Agenda and Stability
Key Judgments
The resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's vice president for strategic affairs, after just 11 days in office, signals deep internal divisions within the newly formed government of President Masoud Pezeshkian. This resignation reflects a significant rift between the reformist and conservative factions within the Iranian government, and it is highly probable that this schism will hamper the implementation of promised reforms and further destabilize Iran's political landscape.
Supporting Evidence
Zarif, a key architect of the 2015 nuclear deal and a prominent figure in Iran’s reformist camp, was instrumental in Pezeshkian's election victory. His appointment to a top strategic role was expected to steer the new administration towards meaningful reform, particularly in foreign policy. However, Zarif’s resignation, reportedly due to his dissatisfaction with the conservative-leaning cabinet selections and the exclusion of women, youth, and ethnic groups from key positions, underscores the internal power struggles that have emerged within Pezeshkian's government (The Times of Israel)(DAWN) (L'Orient Today).
Pressure from hardliners, exacerbated by legal technicalities regarding Zarif’s children holding U.S. citizenship, further isolated him within the government. The lack of support from President Pezeshkian, who did not intervene to retain Zarif despite his critical role, highlights the weakening of the reformist agenda and raises questions about Pezeshkian’s commitment to the changes promised during his campaign (L'Orient Today) (Middle East Eye).
Implications
Zarif's departure is likely to embolden conservative elements within the government, reducing the likelihood of significant reforms. The ensuing political instability could have broader implications, including the potential derailment of renewed nuclear negotiations and the continuation of economic sanctions that are already crippling Iran’s economy. This internal discord may also diminish public confidence in the Pezeshkian administration, leading to increased social unrest and weakening Iran's position in the international arena.
Recommendations
Monitor Political Developments: Closely observe the unfolding power dynamics within Iran’s government to anticipate shifts in policy direction and potential impacts on regional stability.
Engage with Reformist Elements: Encourage diplomatic engagement with remaining reformist figures within Iran to support the continuation of dialogue on nuclear and economic issues.
Prepare for Contingencies: Develop contingency plans for potential escalations in social unrest or shifts in Iran's foreign policy, particularly concerning nuclear negotiations and regional security.
