Invading Taiwan: Weighing the Evidence of a Possible Conflict
Executive Summary
Tensions in the Indo-Pacific continue to escalate as China intensifies military activities near Taiwan, aiming to assert control over the island. The success of any Chinese invasion would hinge on securing key ports to ensure logistical flow, but Taiwan’s advanced defenses and support from global powers present formidable obstacles. This analysis examines the strategic, historical, economic, and geopolitical factors shaping the likelihood and consequences of such a conflict.
Analysis
China’s military ambitions in Taiwan are underpinned by the need to secure major ports such as Keelung, Taichung, and Kaohsiung. These facilities are essential for unloading reinforcements, including armored vehicles, and ensuring the supply chain for sustained operations. However, Taiwan’s strategy involves heavily fortifying these ports with naval mines, missiles, and urban warfare tactics. Chinese military planners recognize these challenges, with their writings revealing six potential strategies for port capture—all fraught with risks.
A direct assault would face entrenched defenses, while alternatives like pincer movements or hovercraft landings may be delayed by counterattacks. Historical parallels, such as France’s failed attempts to occupy Taiwan during the Sino-French War of 1884-85, highlight the strategic complexities. The French, despite naval superiority, were stymied by resilient defenders leveraging terrain and improvised fortifications. Modern Taiwan, with enhanced defensive capabilities and urban density, presents an even greater challenge to potential invaders.
China’s military activities around Taiwan have surged, with record-breaking incursions by warplanes and naval exercises involving hundreds of vessels. Taiwan, bolstered by U.S. military aid, is preparing for any eventuality. The U.S. has approved significant arms sales, including F-16 spare parts and HIMARS systems, while deploying missile units to Japan’s Nansei Islands and the Philippines as part of broader Indo-Pacific security arrangements. These measures are aimed at deterring Chinese aggression and reinforcing the first island chain—a key barrier to Beijing’s expansionist ambitions.
The economic stakes of a conflict are immense. Taiwan dominates global semiconductor production, accounting for half of all chips and 80% of the most advanced semiconductors. A disruption would ripple across industries, from consumer electronics to automotive manufacturing, costing trillions of dollars globally. China, too, is deeply embedded in supply chains for green technologies such as electric vehicle batteries and solar panels. A conflict could destabilize global markets, emphasizing the strategic need for supply chain diversification, particularly for Europe.
China has observed the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, using this as a model to mitigate potential economic fallout from a Taiwan conflict. Beijing has formed interagency groups to study sanctions, diversify trade, and strengthen self-reliance. Yet, the risks remain significant, with potential sanctions targeting banking systems and trade flows that could cripple the Chinese economy.
Global geopolitical dynamics further complicate the situation. The U.S. has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security through arms sales and military deployments, while China has deepened its ties with Russia, leveraging their "no limits" partnership to share lessons on resilience against Western pressures. Despite these alignments, an invasion of Taiwan remains a gamble fraught with uncertainty, given the strength of Taiwan’s defenses and the deterrence posed by international alliances.
