Key Judgments

Iran’s strategic objective in supporting regional terrorism and militant groups is to expand its influence across the Middle East, counterbalance rival powers, and establish itself as a dominant regional player. This approach, which includes supporting groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, is likely to lead to a protracted regional conflict with significant implications for regional stability and global security.

Supporting Evidence

1. Expansion of Influence: Iran’s support for militant groups serves as a tool to expand its influence across the Middle East. By backing groups that align with its strategic interests, Iran aims to create a network of proxy forces that can advance its regional agenda. This network includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, which acts as a deterrent against Israel and a lever of influence in Lebanese politics, and various Shia militias in Iraq that bolster Iran’s position against US influence in the region.

2. Counterbalancing Rivals: Iran’s actions are also driven by the need to counterbalance the influence of rival powers, notably Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States. By supporting proxy groups, Iran can engage in asymmetric warfare, undermining its adversaries’ positions without direct military confrontation. This strategy is evident in Yemen, where Iran supports the Houthi rebels against the Saudi-led coalition, thereby extending its influence on the Arabian Peninsula.

3. Securing Strategic Depth: Supporting regional militant groups provides Iran with strategic depth, allowing it to project power beyond its borders. This helps Iran to secure its western and southern flanks, ensuring that it is not encircled by hostile forces. The presence of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon creates a buffer zone that complicates any potential military actions against Iran.

4. Economic and Political Leverage: Iran leverages its support for militant groups to gain economic and political advantages. By destabilizing regions where its rivals have interests, Iran can force these rivals to divert resources to conflict zones, weakening their positions. Additionally, Iran uses its influence to negotiate favorable terms in international diplomacy, leveraging its control over proxy forces as a bargaining chip.

Implications

1. Protracted Regional Conflict: The ongoing support for militant groups by Iran is likely to lead to a protracted regional conflict. As these groups continue to operate and expand their influence, the Middle East will remain a hotbed of instability. This protracted conflict could draw in multiple regional and international actors, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace.

2. Humanitarian Crises: Continued conflict will exacerbate humanitarian crises in the region. Countries like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq are already facing severe humanitarian challenges, and prolonged fighting will only worsen the situation. Millions of people will be displaced, and the need for international humanitarian aid will increase.

3. Increased Risk of Wider War: The support for militant groups heightens the risk of a wider regional war. As Iran’s proxies clash with rivals’ forces, there is a significant risk of escalation that could draw in major powers, including the United States and Russia, leading to a broader conflict with global implications.

4. Economic Disruptions: The instability caused by ongoing conflicts will continue to disrupt regional economies, particularly in key sectors like oil and gas. Disruptions in production and transport routes can lead to global economic consequences, including fluctuations in energy prices.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Diplomatic Efforts: Intensify diplomatic efforts to engage Iran and its regional rivals in dialogue aimed at de-escalation. Establishing channels of communication and confidence-building measures can help reduce tensions and prevent further escalation.

2. Support Regional Stability Initiatives: Invest in initiatives that promote regional stability and economic development. Supporting governance reforms, economic diversification, and infrastructure development can help address the underlying causes of instability.

3. Strengthen Counterterrorism Cooperation: Enhance international cooperation on counterterrorism to disrupt the networks of militant groups. Sharing intelligence, coordinating operations, and providing capacity-building support to regional partners can mitigate the threat posed by these groups.

4. Address Humanitarian Needs: Increase international humanitarian assistance to regions affected by conflict. Providing food, medical aid, and support for displaced populations can help alleviate the suffering of civilians caught in the crossfire.

5. Monitor and Adapt Sanctions Policies: Continuously monitor the impact of sanctions on Iran and adjust policies to ensure they target the regime’s destabilizing activities without disproportionately affecting the civilian population.