ISIS Expands in Africa as U.S. Counterterrorism Officials Sound the Alarm
Executive Summary
ISIS has identified Africa as its priority region for growth, exploiting poorly governed areas and local instability across the Sahel. U.S. counterterrorism officials, including Brett Holmgren, warn that the group's rapid expansion poses one of the greatest long-term threats to U.S. interests. While ISIS’s current activities focus on local targets, the risk of these groups evolving into global threats remains high. Simultaneously, the withdrawal of Western forces and the growing influence of Russian mercenaries and Chinese economic investments in the region complicate counterterrorism efforts.
Analysis
The Sahel’s growing instability has allowed ISIS to carve out territory and expand its influence, drawing comparisons to the group’s rise in Iraq and Syria a decade ago. Islamist militants, including ISIS affiliates, exploit ethnic tensions and weak governance, with notable activity in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. U.S. counterterrorism officials, including Brett Holmgren, have warned that left unchecked, ISIS could shift from local dominance to global ambitions, including targeting U.S. interests.
The withdrawal of U.S. and French forces from the region has created a power vacuum that ISIS and other extremist groups have quickly filled. This has been compounded by the entry of Russian paramilitary forces like the Wagner Group, which prioritize regime support and resource extraction over effective counterterrorism. These forces have been ineffective against Islamist threats, as demonstrated by rising fatalities linked to extremist violence in the region.
China’s increasing economic investments in Africa, including a $51 billion pledge to infrastructure and job creation, further complicates the geopolitical landscape. While Beijing’s focus on development contrasts with Moscow’s militaristic approach, both nations’ involvement highlights the region’s strategic importance. The combined presence of Russian and Chinese interests risks undermining Western counterterrorism strategies, as African governments align with these external powers for immediate benefits, often at the expense of long-term stability.
For the U.S., the transition between presidential administrations adds uncertainty to counterterrorism priorities. Officials warn that ISIS’s rapid expansion in Africa resembles its earlier rise in the Middle East and caution against neglecting the region in favor of focusing solely on great power competition. Without sustained U.S. engagement, the Sahel could become a global terrorism hotspot, with direct implications for U.S. security.