Israel’s Fragile Ceasefire: Gaza Withdrawals, West Bank Escalations, and Settler Violence
Executive Summary
Israel’s Givati Brigade has withdrawn from Gaza following substantial losses in the 15-month war, coinciding with the implementation of a ceasefire agreement mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S. While the ceasefire promises temporary peace in Gaza, tensions have shifted to the West Bank. Jewish settlers have rampaged through Palestinian towns, and the Israeli military has launched deadly raids, killing at least nine Palestinians. Amid domestic pressure from his far-right coalition partners and U.S. President Trump’s rollback of Biden-era sanctions on violent settlers, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces mounting challenges that threaten to unravel both the ceasefire and his political standing.
Analysis
The withdrawal of Israel’s Givati Brigade marks a key phase in the Gaza ceasefire, but the conflict’s devastation is staggering, with over 47,700 Palestinians killed and more than 111,000 injured since October 2023. The fragile truce, lasting 42 days in its first phase, includes prisoner exchanges and aid deliveries but faces risks from ongoing West Bank violence.
In the West Bank, settlers have attacked Palestinian villages, burning property and injuring 12 people, while Israeli forces continue raids in areas like Jenin, killing nine Palestinians. This escalation is driven by far-right Israeli politicians who demand the annexation of the West Bank and oppose the Gaza ceasefire. Netanyahu’s coalition remains fragile, with figures like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatening to resign if military operations do not resume in Gaza post-ceasefire.
Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency adds complexity. His administration’s rescission of sanctions on settlers accused of violence signals stronger support for Israel but risks emboldening extremist actions. Trump also seeks to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, which conditions normalization on Palestinian statehood—an outcome unlikely under Netanyahu’s far-right government.
The delicate balance between temporary peace in Gaza, escalating violence in the West Bank, and Netanyahu’s political survival underscores the volatility of the current moment.
