Joseph Aoun’s Ascension as Lebanon’s President
Executive Summary
Lebanon’s parliament elected former army chief Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, 2025, ending a two-year political stalemate. Aoun’s rise reflects a shift in Lebanon’s political dynamics, with reduced Hezbollah influence after its military defeat by Israel and the fall of Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad. A U.S.-Saudi-backed candidate, Aoun’s election is seen as a crucial step toward stabilizing Lebanon’s fractured governance and addressing its economic crisis, but significant challenges remain, including Hezbollah’s disarmament and the implementation of the ceasefire with Israel.
Analysis
Joseph Aoun: Background and Leadership Style
Joseph Aoun, 61, is a Maronite Christian and former army commander known for his apolitical stance and focus on military discipline. During his tenure as army chief since 2017, he managed Lebanon’s response to multiple crises, including the 2020 Beirut port explosion, 2019 anti-government protests, and a 14-month conflict with Israel. Despite the Lebanese military’s resource constraints, Aoun maintained its cohesion during Lebanon’s economic collapse. His reputation for integrity, coupled with his nonpartisan approach, made him a unifying figure amidst Lebanon’s divisive political landscape.
Hezbollah’s Decline and the Geopolitical Shift
Aoun’s election was facilitated by the weakened political and military influence of Hezbollah, a key Iranian-backed faction. The group suffered significant losses during last year’s war with Israel, including the assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad further diminished its regional power. For the first time since 1990, a Lebanese president was elected without prior approval from Tehran or Damascus.
Hezbollah and its allies endorsed Aoun only after negotiating assurances, signaling a shift in their approach to Lebanon’s governance. The ceasefire agreement with Israel also required Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon, bolstering Aoun’s mandate to centralize military authority under the Lebanese state.
Economic and Political Ramifications
Lebanon’s economic collapse since 2019 has left the country in dire need of reforms and international financial assistance. Aoun’s election has sparked hope for progress, with Lebanese bonds rallying and international backers, including the U.S., France, and Saudi Arabia, pledging support. Aoun’s immediate priorities include appointing a prime minister, forming a government, and pursuing reforms to secure an IMF bailout.
Challenges Ahead
Hezbollah’s Disarmament: Aoun’s pledge to consolidate state control over weapons directly challenges Hezbollah’s long-held military dominance. While the group has been significantly weakened, dismantling its remaining military infrastructure is likely to face resistance.
Ceasefire Implementation: The Lebanese army must deploy in southern Lebanon as Israeli forces withdraw. Failure to meet the ceasefire terms could strain Lebanon’s international partnerships.
Reform Agenda: Lebanon’s recovery depends on structural reforms, including addressing corruption, restructuring the banking sector, and rebuilding trust in state institutions.
Sources
• AP News: Joseph Aoun elected Lebanon’s president
• Reuters: Lebanese bonds rally after Aoun’s election
• CNN: US-backed Joseph Aoun becomes president
• BBC: Lebanon ends presidential vacuum with Joseph Aoun
• Axios: Biden-Trump coordination on Lebanese presidency