The Kremlin's Global Gambit: From Eastern Europe to America's Backyard

Intel Brief

Oct 20

Moldova - The Kremlin’s Hidden Hand in Eastern Europe

Russian influence operations in Moldova have ramped up in recent years, particularly as the nation moves toward deeper integration with the European Union (EU). As Moldova prepared for its critical presidential election and EU membership referendum in October 2024, the Kremlin doubled down on its efforts to disrupt the country’s democratic processes and stir political instability. With Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu seeking re-election, Russia intensified its campaign of disinformation and covert political interference to undermine the country's pro-EU trajectory.

One of Russia's primary strategies has been covertly supporting pro-Russian political actors and movements within Moldova, using both overt political tactics and shadowy, less conventional methods. This included the recruitment of Moldovan actors to carry out low-level antisemitic graffiti campaigns, intended to create social unrest and amplify societal divisions. Intelligence reports indicate that Russian operatives have attempted to corrupt Moldova’s institutions through bribery and the promotion of pro-Russian figures who are sympathetic to Moscow’s objectives. The Kremlin has also exploited its military presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria, where it maintains a contingent of roughly 1,500 troops, to exert pressure on Moldova and intimidate the population.

In addition to Moldova’s internal political struggles, Russian interference extends to its attempts to block or slow Moldova’s progress towards EU membership. The Kremlin sees Moldova’s EU accession as a significant threat to its influence in Eastern Europe, particularly after the country's movement toward Europe accelerated with the opening of membership negotiations in December 2023. Russian military exclaves in Transnistria, combined with political meddling in Moldova’s autonomous region of Gagauzia, have further complicated the nation’s political landscape.

The Kremlin’s meddling is not restricted to political influence. There have been reports of Russian intelligence operatives seeking to sabotage Moldova’s infrastructure and destabilize its economy. As Moldova continues to push for EU membership, the risk of further Russian efforts to undermine its democratic institutions remains high, with Moscow likely to escalate both cyber and physical sabotage if its influence over the country continues to wane. The outcome of Moldova’s election and referendum in 2024 is critical, not only for Moldova’s future but for the broader security of Eastern Europe, where Russia is trying to maintain its waning influence through increasingly aggressive tactics.

Russia’s Expanding Influence: From Germany to North Korea

Russia’s covert influence operations are not confined to Moldova; they extend deeply into Europe and beyond, weaving a complex web of destabilizing activities that reach from Germany to the United Kingdom, Georgia, and even North Korea.

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, has long been a target of Russian interference, but recent intelligence suggests an uptick in covert operations designed to exploit political and social vulnerabilities. In late 2023, German officials uncovered a major Russian plot to undermine the country's energy infrastructure. Russian cyber operatives had been targeting Germany’s gas and power grids in a bid to create chaos during a politically sensitive period as the country was navigating a critical energy transition away from Russian gas supplies. These attacks were part of a broader Russian effort to punish Germany for its support of Ukraine and its leadership within the European Union.

But Russia’s activities in Germany have not been limited to cyberattacks. There are increasing reports of Russian intelligence operatives recruiting German far-right and far-left extremist groups to stir unrest. These groups, already disillusioned by the German government's policies on immigration and energy, have become fertile ground for Russian influence. Through disinformation campaigns on social media and direct financial support, Moscow has sought to exploit divisions within German society, attempting to destabilize one of Europe’s most stable democracies.

Further to the west, in the United Kingdom, Russian operatives are believed to be behind a major explosion in early 2024 that targeted critical infrastructure. Although details remain classified, the explosion occurred near a key defense facility, and investigators have linked the attack to a Russian intelligence cell operating under diplomatic cover. The attack was a reminder of Russia's ability to strike within Europe’s borders, using both cyber and physical sabotage to push back against Western influence.

Russia’s destabilizing actions also reach deep into the Caucasus region, particularly in Georgia. Since the 2008 war, Russia has maintained a heavy influence over the two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, using these territories as pressure points against the pro-Western Georgian government. In 2024, Russian forces and intelligence operatives significantly escalated their efforts to undermine Georgia’s sovereignty by staging provocations along the administrative boundary lines of the separatist regions. Russian-backed militias have been conducting cross-border incursions, creating a persistent state of insecurity that prevents Georgia from further integrating with NATO and the European Union. These tactics are designed to keep Georgia firmly within Moscow’s sphere of influence, ensuring that the country remains unstable and vulnerable to Russian intervention.

Perhaps one of the most surprising developments in Russia’s global influence network has been its growing partnership with North Korea. The two countries have ramped up cooperation on a number of fronts, particularly in weapons development and cyber warfare. Intelligence reports indicate that North Korean engineers and military specialists have been working with Russian forces, providing expertise in missile technology. This cooperation was highlighted by joint missile launches in 2023, which saw North Korean weapons tested in Russian-controlled territories.

The North Korea-Russia axis is further strengthened by shared goals in cyber warfare. Both nations have extensive cyber capabilities and have been linked to major global hacking operations, including ransomware attacks and data breaches targeting Western governments and companies. North Korea, in particular, has used its cyber capabilities to generate revenue for the regime through cryptocurrency theft and financial sector attacks, often with Russian technical support. This partnership has created a new layer of complexity in the global cybersecurity landscape, as the combined efforts of Russia and North Korea present a formidable challenge to Western intelligence and defense systems.

Russia’s network of influence and covert operations is vast and multi-faceted, extending across Europe and into global hotspots like North Korea. From recruiting extremist groups in Germany to escalating tensions in Georgia and forging dangerous military alliances with North Korea, Russia continues to project its power in unconventional and destabilizing ways, often with far-reaching consequences for global security.

Russian Influence Near U.S. Shores and Latin America

While Russia’s covert activities in Europe and Asia are extensive, its influence operations have also made their way closer to U.S. borders, creating significant concern for American national security. One of the most alarming developments has been Russia’s increasing military and espionage presence in Latin America and the surrounding regions, along with incidents involving Russian naval activities near U.S. waters.

In early 2024, U.S. intelligence detected the presence of a Russian submarine operating dangerously close to American territorial waters. This submarine, identified as part of Russia’s nuclear-armed fleet, was spotted off the eastern seaboard of the United States, sparking a heightened military response from the U.S. Navy. The submarine’s presence is seen as part of Russia’s broader strategy to challenge U.S. dominance in the Atlantic, conducting surveillance operations and testing the boundaries of U.S. maritime defenses. The incident raised alarms in Washington, as it signaled Russia’s willingness to deploy strategic assets in close proximity to the United States, a clear message of Moscow’s ability to project power even far from its own shores.

In addition to these provocative naval actions, Russia’s influence is spreading across Latin America, where it has found willing partners in several authoritarian regimes. Venezuela, in particular, has emerged as a key ally for Moscow, providing Russia with a foothold in a region traditionally dominated by the United States. Russia’s relationship with Venezuela is built on military cooperation, economic support, and intelligence-sharing, with Russian advisers reportedly embedded within Venezuelan defense and intelligence structures. Moscow has also provided Venezuela with advanced weaponry, including surface-to-air missile systems, and has conducted joint military exercises with the Venezuelan military.

Beyond Venezuela, Russia has sought to expand its influence in other parts of Latin America. Nicaragua, led by President Daniel Ortega, has also become a key ally in Moscow’s efforts to increase its presence in the Western Hemisphere. Russia has supplied Nicaragua with military hardware, intelligence training, and economic aid, and Russian naval vessels have made port calls in the country, further strengthening ties. These partnerships allow Russia to operate in closer proximity to the United States, potentially staging influence operations and cyber activities from Latin American soil.

Russia’s outreach in Latin America is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to counter U.S. influence in its own hemisphere, mirroring the U.S.’s support for countries along Russia’s periphery. Russian influence in Latin America is not just limited to military and intelligence cooperation; it also involves disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining U.S. foreign policy in the region. Moscow has used state media outlets like RT and Sputnik to spread anti-American narratives, particularly in countries with strained relationships with Washington. This information warfare seeks to weaken U.S. diplomatic ties and foster resentment towards American policies, thereby increasing Moscow’s leverage in the region.

Meanwhile, Russia’s ties with Cuban intelligence have also deepened, with reports suggesting that Russian operatives are working closely with Cuban counterparts on counterintelligence operations aimed at monitoring U.S. activities in the region. This cooperation is reminiscent of Cold War-era partnerships, where Cuba served as a key Soviet outpost just 90 miles from the U.S. coast. The resurgence of this relationship signals Moscow’s intent to re-establish its influence in regions critical to U.S. national security.

Russia’s activities in Latin America and its naval provocations near U.S. shores represent a direct challenge to American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. By building alliances with authoritarian regimes, supplying military hardware, and conducting intelligence operations, Russia is positioning itself as a counterbalance to U.S. influence. The Kremlin’s ability to operate so close to American territory, both militarily and politically, demonstrates that Russia’s reach extends far beyond Europe and Asia. The U.S. must remain vigilant as Russia continues to expand its footprint in Latin America, potentially creating new fronts of competition and conflict close to U.S. borders.

As Moscow deepens its partnerships with Latin American nations and continues its provocative military actions, the risks of miscalculation and conflict increase. Russia’s influence activities in the region highlight the ongoing global chess match between Washington and Moscow, where Latin America serves as yet another battleground in their geopolitical rivalry. The presence of Russian military assets near U.S. waters and its growing influence in countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua mark a significant escalation in Russia’s efforts to challenge American power in its own hemisphere.