Murder, Espionage, and International Relations: Latin America's Ties to Cartels and US Foreign Adversaries

Nov 13

Executive Summary

Latin America has become a complex battleground for international power struggles, with entangled relationships among drug cartels, local governments, and foreign adversaries challenging U.S. influence in the region. In Mexico, entrenched cartels control strategic territories used for smuggling narcotics and have escalated their violent tactics against local officials and military personnel. Former President Trump’s proposed solution to deploy assassination teams to target cartel leaders has sparked debate over its effectiveness and risks, given the deep cartel infiltration within Mexican authorities. Beyond the cartels, foreign powers like Russia, China, and Iran are actively extending their influence across Latin America. Russia has significantly expanded its intelligence presence in Mexico, exploiting the nation’s proximity to the U.S. to monitor American activities while sowing anti-U.S. sentiment. China, through massive infrastructure investments and technology partnerships, is embedding itself in critical sectors across the region, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which brings both economic aid and potential surveillance capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran has cultivated alliances with Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, aiming to create a network of ideological and strategic partners near U.S. borders. These developments underscore a mounting challenge for U.S. foreign policy, as Latin America’s ties with U.S. adversaries deepen, shaping a geopolitical landscape marked by murder, espionage, and growing anti-American influence.

Analysis

Mexican Cartels: Control, Violence, and Fentanyl Production

In recent years, Mexico's cartels have become increasingly aggressive in defending their territory and operations. This includes not only inter-cartel violence but targeted attacks on military and law enforcement officials. A recent assassination of a rear admiral in Manzanillo, a key Pacific port for fentanyl chemical imports, exemplifies the heightened risks facing officials working to curtail cartel activities. The targeted killing, one of the highest-profile assassinations in over a decade, underlines how essential territorial control of these ports has become for the cartels. Manzanillo and similar ports serve as major entry points for chemicals used to produce fentanyl, which is then smuggled across the U.S. border, fueling a crisis that claims thousands of American lives annually.

In response to the deadly opioid epidemic, Trump’s proposed solution is an aggressive shift toward deploying U.S. assassination teams to dismantle cartel leadership structures. This “militarized” approach aims to target cartel leaders on Mexican soil to weaken the organizations driving fentanyl production and distribution. However, this strategy faces significant logistical and diplomatic hurdles. Tracking and eliminating cartel leaders would require intelligence cooperation from Mexican authorities—a prospect complicated by documented cartel infiltration within Mexican government ranks. Notably, cases like the 2020 arrest of General Salvador Cienfuegos, Mexico's former Secretary of National Defense, on drug-related charges highlight the challenges of finding trustworthy partners in such operations.

Moreover, even if high-value targets are located and eliminated, the cartel structure is resilient. Past efforts to target leaders, such as in Colombia, have demonstrated that drug production and distribution networks quickly adapt and reorganize. This constant replacement of cartel leaders suggests that without broader structural changes, the impact of targeted assassinations would likely be limited. Economically, the demand-driven nature of drug trafficking means that new criminal entrepreneurs quickly fill any voids left by leadership disruptions.

Impact of U.S.-Mexican Relations on Cartel Countermeasures

The tension between the U.S. and Mexico over handling cartel-related violence and drug trafficking complicates cooperative countermeasures. Mexico's government, led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has opposed military solutions and prefers to focus on social programs aimed at reducing poverty and, theoretically, cartel recruitment. This softer approach contrasts sharply with Trump’s proposal, emphasizing a militaristic response to what is perceived by the U.S. as a national security threat.

Furthermore, the Mexican government’s resistance to U.S. military intervention on its soil is likely to increase if assassination teams are deployed without clear diplomatic agreements. Historically, cartels have avoided directly targeting U.S. personnel to avoid inviting full-scale military retaliation. A unilateral move by the U.S. to target cartel leaders could provoke the very escalation of violence that such measures aim to suppress, with cartels potentially shifting their focus to U.S. agents and assets.

Thus, while the U.S. faces an urgent crisis due to the fentanyl epidemic, the proposed militarized response introduces risks of broader conflict. Balancing effective countermeasures against cartel influence with diplomatic sensitivity remains crucial to ensuring sustained and cooperative efforts against a shared threat.

Iran’s Expanding Influence in Latin America

Iran’s presence in Latin America has grown significantly in recent years, driven by strategic partnerships with countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Through these alliances, Iran seeks to counter U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere, leveraging military, economic, and ideological ties to establish a foothold close to American borders. This relationship is central to Iran’s broader goal of projecting power beyond the Middle East and into regions traditionally dominated by U.S. influence.

Venezuela, Iran’s principal ally in the region, serves as a hub for Iranian activities, including military and technological collaboration. Iran has supplied Venezuela with drones and missile technology, provided military training, and established a logistics network for delivering goods and equipment. These shipments bypass traditional trade restrictions, enabling Iran to support an ideologically aligned regime while advancing its own military capabilities in the Americas. Additionally, Iranian operatives have reportedly assisted Venezuelan security forces in intelligence operations and crowd-control tactics, deepening Iran’s role in supporting Venezuela’s government.

Iran’s influence extends beyond Venezuela, with partnerships in Bolivia and Nicaragua. Bolivia has reportedly collaborated with Iran on anti-narcotics operations, using these joint efforts as a cover to access military resources and intelligence. Furthermore, the Bolivian government has allegedly issued passports to Iranian operatives, facilitating their movement across Latin America and potentially into the U.S. These operations serve as a means for Iran to infiltrate sensitive regions and build networks capable of advancing Tehran’s goals.

Iran’s strategy in Latin America reflects a dual approach: fostering ideological alliances with leftist governments that oppose U.S. policies and establishing operational assets that could be used for intelligence or covert action if tensions with the U.S. escalate. For instance, Iranian operatives in Venezuela and Bolivia are suspected of involvement in surveillance and cyber operations targeting American interests, although the scale of these efforts remains unclear. The growing Iranian presence has raised alarm in U.S. and Israeli security circles, as these assets could enable Iran to launch or facilitate asymmetric threats within close proximity to U.S. borders.

In Nicaragua, Iran has pursued a similar agenda, partnering with the Ortega government on infrastructure and security projects that align with both countries’ anti-U.S. narratives. Iran’s investments in Nicaraguan energy and telecommunications sectors could afford Tehran significant leverage, particularly if it gains control over communications infrastructure that could be used for intelligence gathering. By embedding itself within critical sectors, Iran strengthens its strategic position and solidifies its alliances with governments aligned against U.S. influence.

Regional and U.S. Responses

The U.S. and its allies are increasingly concerned by Iran’s penetration of Latin America, especially as Iranian influence grows in regions close to American borders. Washington has ramped up intelligence monitoring and diplomatic efforts to counter Tehran’s influence in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua. These efforts include sharing intelligence with Latin American allies, applying diplomatic pressure to isolate Iran-aligned governments, and bolstering partnerships with countries that share the U.S.’s strategic objectives in the region.

However, Iran’s entrenched alliances in Latin America present significant challenges for U.S. foreign policy. Iran’s deep-rooted ideological and economic ties with these governments make it difficult for the U.S. to limit Tehran’s influence without risking broader diplomatic fallout. As a result, the U.S. is likely to focus on countering Iranian actions indirectly, targeting financial and logistical networks that support Iran’s operations while working to diplomatically weaken its allies in Latin America.

The implications of Iran’s presence in Latin America are far-reaching, extending beyond regional politics to potentially influence U.S. national security. Iran’s strategy of embedding itself in America’s southern neighbors underscores a willingness to project power in the Western Hemisphere, challenging traditional U.S. dominance. As Iran deepens its ties with sympathetic regimes, it is setting the stage for potential proxy conflicts and intelligence operations within close proximity to U.S. soil, signaling a new phase in U.S.-Iran relations that extends far beyond the Middle East.

Russia’s Espionage Expansion and Influence in Latin America

Russia’s influence operations in Latin America have surged in recent years, marked by expanded diplomatic presence, intelligence gathering, and strategic partnerships with regional governments. These activities are part of a broader Russian strategy to counter U.S. influence globally, leveraging Latin America’s proximity to the U.S. to monitor and potentially disrupt American operations. Russia’s involvement includes not only traditional diplomatic channels but also covert operations, using embassies as bases for intelligence operations that gather information on U.S. movements and cultivate anti-U.S. sentiment within the region.

Mexico has emerged as a focal point of Russian espionage in Latin America. Russia has significantly increased its diplomatic presence in Mexico City, positioning intelligence operatives under diplomatic cover to exploit Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. With fewer restrictions compared to European nations, Russia has found Mexico’s neutral stance conducive to expanded operations. Russian intelligence operatives reportedly monitor U.S. activities, focusing on American intelligence and security efforts. U.S. officials have expressed concerns about the Russian presence, noting that it complicates intelligence and counter-espionage efforts across North America.

A key element of Russia’s strategy in Latin America is its use of propaganda to shape public opinion. Russian state media, notably RT, has invested in extensive Spanish-language programming across the region, disseminating narratives that criticize U.S. foreign policy and promote Russian interests. This includes targeted disinformation campaigns designed to undermine trust in U.S. institutions and promote Russian-aligned viewpoints. For instance, RT has circulated stories claiming U.S. involvement in Latin American conflicts, portraying the U.S. as destabilizing and imperialistic. This information warfare plays a significant role in shaping regional perspectives on the U.S. and Russia, positioning Moscow as a counterbalance to American influence.

The expansion of Russia’s influence in Mexico also includes claims of Mexican cartel involvement, suggesting that some cartel members have been recruited to serve Russian interests. Unverified reports have circulated that certain cartels might be cooperating with Russian operatives, possibly in exchange for logistical or financial support. While the veracity of these claims remains uncertain, the potential for cartel-Russian collaboration poses a new layer of complexity for U.S. border security. This alleged alliance would allow Russia to indirectly influence narcotics trafficking routes, amplifying regional instability and challenging U.S. security operations along the southern border.

U.S. Concerns and Potential Responses

The United States views Russia’s expanded presence in Mexico and Latin America as a significant strategic threat, given the potential for espionage and influence operations targeting the U.S. directly. American intelligence agencies are closely monitoring Russia’s activities, with a particular focus on tracking Russian diplomatic missions and countering misinformation disseminated by state-backed media. Additionally, the U.S. is working to build stronger ties with Latin American governments willing to resist Russian influence, using diplomatic and economic incentives to align regional interests with American priorities.

In response to Russia’s growing presence, the U.S. has ramped up intelligence-sharing programs and extended cooperation with Mexican agencies, though the relationship is complicated by Mexico’s historical non-alignment policy. Diplomatic channels have been established to address espionage concerns, while the U.S. continues to bolster border security measures to mitigate potential risks associated with increased Russian influence in the region.

China’s Expanding Influence in Latin America

China’s growing involvement in Latin America represents a strategic push to secure economic influence and establish a foothold in the Western Hemisphere. While historically focused on trade and investment, China's engagement in the region has increasingly taken on geopolitical dimensions, with the potential to shift regional power dynamics. Through infrastructure investments, strategic partnerships, and influence operations, China has worked to strengthen its ties with Latin American governments, creating dependencies that could challenge U.S. influence in the long term.

A cornerstone of China’s strategy in Latin America is its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), through which China has invested in key infrastructure projects across the region. Countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Peru have signed on to the BRI, resulting in substantial Chinese investments in ports, railways, and telecommunications. These projects not only support regional development but also extend China’s economic reach and control over critical infrastructure. For instance, Chinese telecommunications firms like Huawei have made significant inroads, providing technology for 5G networks in several Latin American countries. This technology integration raises concerns about potential Chinese surveillance capabilities, as Huawei’s infrastructure could enable data collection or cyber espionage on behalf of the Chinese government.

China’s influence is also reflected in its deepening ties with regional leaders and governments. By offering financial assistance and infrastructure investments, China has cultivated relationships with countries that share its anti-U.S. stance or seek alternatives to Western financial institutions. Venezuela, for instance, has benefited from Chinese loans, trade agreements, and technological support, which bolster the regime’s stability while deepening its dependency on Chinese capital and resources. Chinese support has allowed Venezuela to bypass some Western sanctions, providing a lifeline for the Maduro government and reinforcing China’s strategic alliance with anti-U.S. regimes.

In addition to economic ties, China has fostered cultural and educational exchanges to strengthen its soft power in Latin America. Confucius Institutes, present in many Latin American countries, serve as a means of promoting Chinese language and culture while also offering an avenue for Beijing to influence public opinion. These institutions are part of a broader Chinese strategy to reshape regional perceptions, portraying China as a reliable partner in development, trade, and technological advancement. China’s state media outlets also distribute Spanish-language content in the region, promoting narratives that highlight China’s contributions to regional development and downplay its human rights issues.

U.S. Strategy and Concerns

The United States regards China’s growing influence in Latin America with significant concern, particularly with regard to Chinese control over telecommunications infrastructure and critical logistics hubs. The potential for espionage through Chinese technology networks poses a direct threat to U.S. national security, especially if these networks become integrated with those used by U.S. allies. The U.S. has responded by warning Latin American countries of the risks associated with Huawei and other Chinese firms, encouraging them to seek alternatives in telecommunications and infrastructure development.

Furthermore, the U.S. has ramped up diplomatic engagement with Latin American countries to counter China’s influence. This includes economic assistance and trade agreements aimed at providing Latin American countries with viable alternatives to Chinese investments. In 2019, the U.S. launched the America Crece initiative, designed to support private-sector investment in Latin American energy and infrastructure projects. However, the scale of Chinese financial assistance in the region poses a challenge to the U.S., as many Latin American countries remain reliant on Chinese funding for critical infrastructure and development projects.

China’s long-term strategy in Latin America underscores its ambitions to establish a presence near U.S. borders and project power within the Western Hemisphere. Through strategic investments and cultural outreach, China is working to reshape Latin America’s economic and political landscape, creating a buffer against U.S. influence and establishing itself as a global power with interests in the Americas. The U.S. will need to adopt a nuanced and proactive approach to prevent the further erosion of its influence in a region historically aligned with American interests.