Russian Airstrikes Escalate Amid Aleppo’s Fall to Rebels, Shifting Syria’s War
Executive Summary
Russia has launched intense airstrikes across northern Syria after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Islamist groups captured Aleppo in a lightning offensive. This is the first time the city has fallen fully under rebel control since the Syrian civil war began, representing a seismic blow to Bashar al-Assad’s regime. While Moscow aims to suppress the rebel momentum, its delayed response has revealed operational vulnerabilities as Russia contends with overextended military commitments in Ukraine and a fragmented network of ground allies in Syria. The offensive has destabilized the Assad regime’s grip on power, threatened Moscow’s strategic assets in the Mediterranean, and exacerbated Syria’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Analysis
Aleppo’s capture by HTS marks a critical turning point in the Syrian civil war, reversing one of Assad’s most significant victories in 2016 when Russian and Iranian forces helped reclaim the city. The rebels, seizing on weakened regime defenses and distracted allies like Hezbollah, swiftly took strategic sites, including Aleppo’s airport and industrial zones. These gains have emboldened the insurgents, who have threatened to advance further south toward Hama and Damascus. Moscow responded with a heavy air campaign targeting rebel-held areas in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama, killing dozens but failing to stop the rebel advance.
This renewed conflict exposes the fragility of Assad’s regime and the limitations of Russia’s ability to support it effectively. Russian airstrikes, although potent, have caused significant civilian casualties, displacing over 14,000 people and devastating critical infrastructure. The humanitarian toll of these strikes has drawn international condemnation and highlighted the enduring human cost of Syria’s war, which has killed over 500,000 people since 2011. Observers have noted the rebels’ success in capturing military equipment, including helicopters and air defense systems, further undermining Assad’s capabilities.
Russia’s ability to respond is also constrained by its military commitments in Ukraine and the degradation of key allied forces like Hezbollah, which has withdrawn troops to focus on conflicts with Israel. The loss of Aleppo threatens to isolate Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia, critical to Moscow’s Mediterranean strategy. Geopolitically, Moscow faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining relations with regional players like Turkey and Iran while addressing increasing challenges from Israel’s strikes on Iranian-backed forces in Syria. Meanwhile, speculation has emerged that Russia’s shifting priorities could leave Assad vulnerable to further rebel advances, as evidenced by Moscow’s retreat from key positions in Damascus and Hama.
International reactions have been swift but divided. The United States and its European allies have called for de-escalation and the protection of civilians, but their focus remains on countering ISIS and limiting Iranian influence rather than intervening directly. Turkey, which has supported some rebel factions, has leveraged the situation to expand its influence in northern Syria. This geopolitical fragmentation underscores the complex, multi-faceted nature of Syria’s conflict and the difficulties in achieving a lasting resolution.
The fall of Aleppo and the subsequent airstrikes are a stark reminder of the Syrian war’s ongoing volatility. Despite Assad’s recent efforts to normalize his regime internationally, the resurgence of conflict reveals the deep and unresolved fissures in Syria’s political and military landscape. Russia’s continued intervention may sustain the regime in the short term, but the long-term implications of these developments threaten to erode Moscow’s influence and destabilize its foothold in the region.