Executive Summary

The Sahel region in Africa has become a battleground for international influence, with Russia and China significantly increasing their presence. Russia, through its paramilitary groups like Wagner, and China, with substantial financial investments, are both leveraging the ongoing instability to strengthen their geopolitical and economic positions. The power vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western nations, particularly the United States, has opened doors for both nations to expand their influence in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This increase in foreign involvement, paired with the rising threat of militant Islamist groups, complicates an already unstable region.

Analysis

Russia's Expanding Military Influence in the Sahel

Russia has rapidly expanded its military and paramilitary presence in Africa, particularly through the Wagner Group. After the US withdrawal from Niger and Mali, Russia has capitalized on the opportunity to establish itself as a key security partner for several Sahelian nations. By providing military support to ruling juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Russia has solidified its role in countering militant Islamist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates in the region.

The Wagner Group's operations in the Central African Republic (CAR), where they’ve provided training to local forces and suppressed rebel movements, have been replicated across the region. The group's activities, however, have been marred by allegations of human rights abuses, including executions and torture, which have raised concerns among international observers. Despite these accusations, Russia’s foothold continues to grow, with military bases being refurbished and new alliances forming, such as the confederation between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso aimed at increasing regional security cooperation.

China's Economic Leverage and Geopolitical Strategy

While Russia focuses on military support, China has positioned itself as the dominant economic player in Africa. At the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China pledged $51 billion in financial assistance to African nations, including funding for infrastructure, clean energy, and agriculture. This financial commitment has allowed Beijing to entrench itself deeply in African economies, establishing itself as the largest bilateral lender across the continent.

China’s focus on job creation, infrastructure development, and trade has earned it significant goodwill from African governments, especially as many African nations struggle with debt and underdevelopment. Despite concerns over growing debt burdens, China’s investments have provided critical resources for Sahelian countries grappling with widespread poverty and weak infrastructure. The combination of China’s economic might and Russia’s military interventions offers African nations an alternative to Western involvement, particularly in a post-colonial context where trust in Western powers has diminished.

Western Withdrawal and the Power Vacuum

The US and other Western nations' gradual withdrawal from the Sahel region has accelerated the shift in power dynamics. The US handover of military bases in Niger and Mali to local authorities, combined with the failure to counter Russian influence in the region, has left a void that Russia and China have been eager to fill. American and European disengagement from African counterterrorism efforts has not only diminished the West’s strategic footprint but also weakened regional security initiatives against militant Islamist groups.

The reliance on Russian paramilitary forces, particularly in countries like CAR and Mali, indicates a shift in how African governments are addressing their security needs. Rather than depending on Western-trained forces or UN peacekeeping missions, these governments are opting for more assertive, albeit controversial, Russian support. Meanwhile, Western policymakers face challenges in recalibrating their strategies to counter this influence, with limited options outside diplomatic engagement.

Implications for Regional Security

The escalating violence in the Sahel, driven by militant Islamist groups, poses severe risks to regional stability. With over 11,200 deaths recorded in 2024 alone due to extremist violence, the region is experiencing a humanitarian crisis. Attacks on civilians have increased dramatically, and the involvement of foreign paramilitary groups, such as Wagner, has further destabilized the region.

The presence of foreign actors like Russia and China complicates the situation. While both countries offer support that helps African governments maintain power, their interests may not align with long-term peace and stability in the region. The growing influence of Russia’s paramilitary forces, with their focus on resource extraction and suppressing opposition, risks exacerbating local grievances, potentially fueling further extremism.

China’s role, while focused on economic development, could also face backlash if African countries find themselves trapped in unsustainable debt. The Western withdrawal has left a gap that both Russia and China are eager to fill, but the long-term consequences for African governance, sovereignty, and regional stability remain uncertain.

Final Thoughts

As Western influence wanes in the Sahel, Russia and China are stepping in to fill the vacuum, with Russia focusing on military power and China leveraging its economic strength. While this might provide short-term stability for certain regimes, the long-term implications for the region could deepen instability, exacerbate extremism, and increase foreign dependency.