Key Judgment:

Russia's decision to move 90% of its aircraft beyond the range of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles represents a calculated effort to mitigate the effectiveness of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. This strategic repositioning, coupled with ongoing Western restrictions on Ukraine's use of these missiles against targets within Russian territory, significantly hampers Ukraine's ability to neutralize Russian aerial threats and may lead to prolonged conflict dynamics.

Supporting Evidence:

Strategic Relocation of Aircraft: Russia has proactively relocated approximately 90% of its aircraft to military bases situated outside the range of Ukraine's ATACMS missiles. This move is a direct response to the perceived threat posed by these long-range missiles, which Ukraine has been eager to deploy against Russian airfields responsible for launching cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian territory. By repositioning its aircraft, Russia effectively reduces the potential impact of ATACMS strikes, thereby preserving its aerial capabilities and maintaining its offensive operations against Ukraine.

Western Restrictions on Missile Use: Despite Ukraine's persistent appeals, the U.S. and other Western nations, including the UK, have imposed strict limitations on the use of ATACMS and other long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow. These restrictions are driven by concerns over escalating the conflict and the potential for strikes deep within Russian territory. The Biden administration, in particular, has remained firm in its policy, refusing to grant Ukraine the authority to use these weapons on Russian soil, even as the conflict intensifies and Ukraine faces growing challenges on the battlefield.

Deployment of F-16 Fighter Jets: In response to the intensifying Russian attacks, Ukraine has begun deploying U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to intercept aerial targets, particularly as Russian forces continue their bombardment of Ukraine's power grid and critical infrastructure. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that these jets alone are insufficient to counter the scale of the Russian offensive, emphasizing the need for more advanced and unrestricted long-range capabilities.

Testing of Domestic Ballistic Missiles: In light of Western restrictions, Ukraine has also been working on enhancing its domestic missile capabilities. Zelenskyy highlighted the successful testing of a domestically produced ballistic missile, which could potentially provide Ukraine with the means to strike deeper into Russian territory, albeit without the same range or precision as the ATACMS.

Implications:

The strategic relocation of Russian aircraft, combined with the continued Western restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, severely limits Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russian aerial operations and degrade Russian military assets. This dynamic is likely to prolong the conflict, as Ukraine's ability to impose significant costs on Russian forces is constrained. Additionally, the reliance on domestic missile development may push Ukraine to seek alternative means of striking Russian targets, potentially leading to new developments in the conflict's progression. The situation underscores the delicate balance that Western nations are attempting to maintain in supporting Ukraine while avoiding further escalation with Russia.