A Strategic Shift in Russian Public Sentiment: The War in Ukraine and Its Domestic Impact

Executive Summary

Over the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, polling data has consistently revealed significant shifts in Russian public opinion regarding the war. Once bolstered by widespread support, recent polls indicate a growing disillusionment among the Russian population, with many calling for troop withdrawals and a peaceful resolution. This change reflects both the physical and emotional toll the war has taken on the Russian populace, coupled with increased skepticism regarding the Kremlin's war aims. As the war drags on with no clear end in sight, the data suggests that public morale is declining, and opposition to continued fighting is gaining traction, potentially signaling a turning point in the conflict. This report analyzes the strategic implications of this shift in sentiment and explores what these evolving opinions mean for the future of the war and Putin’s hold on power.

Analysis

Initial Support for the Invasion: The Rallying Effect

At the outset of the full-scale invasion in 2022, public opinion within Russia was largely shaped by a rally-around-the-flag effect. Polling data from February 2023 indicated that 77% of Russians supported the war, with many buying into the Kremlin’s narrative of defending Russian-speaking populations and countering NATO's influence. State-controlled media played a pivotal role in shaping these attitudes, presenting the war as a necessary measure to protect Russia from external threats.

The initial wave of support also coincided with a surge of nationalism, as Russians believed that a swift victory was inevitable. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 had been a point of national pride, and many expected a similar outcome in Ukraine. However, as the war dragged on, with mounting casualties and economic hardships, the Kremlin struggled to maintain this narrative.

Shifting Public Opinion: The War's Toll on Russian Society

By 2024, the cracks in public support for the war began to show. A poll conducted by the Levada Center in early 2024 revealed that the percentage of Russians firmly supporting the war had dropped significantly—from 77% in early 2023 to 49% by September 2024. This shift is partially attributed to the growing realization that the conflict would not be a quick and decisive victory, as many had hoped.

The Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, particularly in the Kursk region, was a watershed moment for many Russians. The psychological impact of seeing Ukrainian forces operate within Russia’s borders shattered the illusion of invulnerability that the Kremlin had carefully crafted. Public morale took a hit, with polls showing that fewer Russians believed the war would end in their favor or that it would bring tangible benefits to Russia.

The impact of the war has been felt across various aspects of Russian society. A growing number of Russians reported experiencing economic difficulties, with 44% of respondents in one poll stating that their family incomes had decreased due to the conflict. Moreover, the psychological toll of the war has been significant, with more than half of the Russian population (52%) reporting feelings of anxiety and depression—up from 32% in early 2022.

Mobilization and Its Discontents

One of the most contentious aspects of the war within Russia has been the Kremlin's partial mobilization efforts. Initially, Putin’s mobilization announcement in 2022 was met with mixed reactions, but as the war continued, the public's tolerance for more conscription waned. By late 2023, less than a third of respondents supported a second wave of mobilization, while 29% stated they would refuse to fight if called upon.

This growing reluctance to serve is a reflection of both the personal risks associated with military service and the broader dissatisfaction with the war’s progress. Families of soldiers have become increasingly vocal, with protests erupting in several regions, demanding the return of their loved ones. This opposition to mobilization has put additional pressure on the Kremlin, forcing it to recalibrate its approach to sustaining the war effort.

The Age Divide: A Generational Shift in Support

One of the most notable trends in public opinion is the stark generational divide in attitudes toward the war. Polling data indicates that older Russians, particularly those over 65, are more likely to support the war, with 56% expressing unconditional backing for the invasion. This group tends to rely more on state-controlled media and has been more susceptible to the Kremlin’s propaganda efforts.

In contrast, younger Russians are far less supportive of the war, with only 30% of those under 25 backing the invasion. Many in this demographic consume information from independent media sources or social media, where alternative narratives about the war are more prevalent. This age-based divide is significant because it points to a potential long-term challenge for the Kremlin in maintaining support for the war, as younger generations are increasingly skeptical of the regime’s policies.

Economic Hardships and War Fatigue: A Growing Discontent

As the war has stretched on, the economic impact has become harder to ignore. Sanctions imposed by Western nations have crippled key sectors of the Russian economy, leading to higher inflation, job losses, and shortages of basic goods. A significant portion of the population now feels the direct consequences of the war, with many expressing frustration over the government’s continued focus on the conflict at the expense of domestic issues..

In a 2024 poll, 66% of respondents stated that Russia was paying too high a price for its involvement in Ukraine, and more than half said they supported peace talks—even if that meant making concessions to Ukraine. This growing war fatigue is likely to increase pressure on the Kremlin to seek an exit strategy, especially as the economic situation continues to deteriorate.

The Kremlin’s Response: Propaganda and Repression

Despite the growing opposition to the war, the Kremlin has doubled down on its propaganda efforts, continuing to portray the conflict as a defensive struggle against NATO encroachment. However, state media’s effectiveness appears to be waning, particularly among younger Russians, who are less likely to view state television as an objective source of information. This decline in trust presents a significant challenge for Putin, as he has long relied on state-controlled media to shape public opinion and maintain his grip on power.

At the same time, the Russian government has intensified its crackdown on dissent, criminalizing criticism of the war and imposing harsh penalties on those who speak out against it. Independent polling organizations, such as Chronicles, have faced increasing pressure from the authorities, making it more difficult to gauge the true extent of public discontent.

Strategic Implications for Putin and the War

The strategic implications of this shift in public opinion are profound. While Putin has thus far managed to suppress domestic dissent, the growing opposition to the war—coupled with the economic hardships and war fatigue—poses a significant threat to his regime. Public sentiment is increasingly at odds with the Kremlin’s narrative, and as discontent grows, the likelihood of widespread protests or even a coup becomes more plausible.

Moreover, the decline in support for the war complicates Putin’s ability to sustain the conflict militarily. With fewer Russians willing to fight, the Kremlin may be forced to consider alternatives, such as seeking a negotiated settlement or scaling back its military ambitions in Ukraine. This shift could also have implications for Russia’s standing on the global stage, as its military failures and domestic unrest weaken its position in international negotiations.

Final Thoughts

The polling data presents a clear picture of a Russian society that is increasingly weary of the war in Ukraine. As public support for the conflict wanes and economic hardships mount, the Kremlin faces growing pressure to find a way out. While Putin has managed to maintain control through propaganda and repression, the cracks in his regime are becoming more apparent. The strategic challenge for the Kremlin will be how to navigate this shifting landscape without losing its grip on power.