Syrian Rebels Launch Major Offensive Against Assad Regime in Aleppo Province
Executive Summary
Syrian rebels have launched their most significant military operation in over four years, targeting regime forces in western Aleppo. The offensive, named "Deterrence of Aggression," is a response to artillery shelling by the Assad regime and marks the first major flare-up since the 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. Rebels seized 13 villages, including critical locations like Base 46 and Urm Al-Sughra, highlighting the fragility of Syria’s tenuous ceasefire agreements and the enduring instability of the Syrian civil war.
Analysis
The surprise attack on Wednesday underscores the enduring volatility of Syria’s conflict, with rebel factions displaying a surprising level of coordination and military capability. Seizing Base 46, the largest military base in western Aleppo, represents a strategic victory for the rebels and a notable setback for regime forces and allied Iranian militias. With over 37 regime forces reported killed, the offensive demonstrates a resurgence of opposition strength, particularly within factions like the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamist groups.
The rebels' success in capturing key areas, including Anjara and Urm Al-Kubra, highlights vulnerabilities in the Assad regime’s defenses in Aleppo. The town of Urm Al-Kubra, located only 20 kilometers from Aleppo city, is of strategic importance for controlling supply routes and expanding rebel influence in the region. Additionally, the targeting of Al-Nayrab Airport, a key regime stronghold, signals a broader rebel strategy to disrupt regime operations in northern Syria.
Historically, the Syrian civil war, which began during the Arab Spring in 2011, has evolved into a complex proxy conflict involving global and regional powers. Assad’s regime, bolstered by Russian airpower and Iranian militias, has largely regained control over much of Syria. However, areas like Idlib and parts of Aleppo remain contested, with the opposition fragmented but resilient. This latest offensive disrupts the relative calm maintained since the 2020 ceasefire agreement and risks escalating tensions among external actors like Russia and Turkey, both of whom maintain a delicate balance of influence in the region.
The civilian toll remains high, with residents in regime-held areas like New Aleppo fleeing due to the fighting. The prolonged conflict has already displaced millions, devastated infrastructure, and created one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history. Over 300,000 civilians have been killed, according to the United Nations, with the fragile ceasefires providing only limited reprieve.
The broader geopolitical implications are significant. The involvement of Iranian-backed militias in the conflict introduces the potential for retaliatory strikes, further complicating an already chaotic situation. Meanwhile, the resurgence of large-scale fighting could draw increased involvement from Turkey, which supports some rebel factions, and Russia, which backs Assad. The region’s instability continues to impact neighboring countries and exacerbate tensions between global powers.