Taliban Resurgence: Regional Instability and Global Terror Threats
Executive Summary
A Dari-language article published on March 13, 2025, via the Bazgasht News Telegram channel warns that the Afghan Taliban’s unchecked rule since 2021 has transformed Afghanistan into a hub for terrorist groups, posing a threat potentially surpassing the scale of 9/11. Authored by Arsh Azadeh, the piece details how the Taliban’s support for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Al-Qaeda has destabilized South and Central Asia while amplifying global security risks. Pakistan, once a Taliban ally, now faces escalating TTP attacks aimed at establishing an Islamic emirate. Iran contends with border skirmishes and ISKP’s anti-Shi’ite violence, while Tajikistan and Central Asia brace for Taliban-backed extremist incursions. The report suggests that without international intervention, these groups could orchestrate devastating transnational attacks.
Analysis
The Bazgasht News article frames the Taliban’s 2021 takeover as a tipping point, turning Afghanistan into a sanctuary for jihadist factions with far-reaching ambitions. Unlike the pre-9/11 era, when Al-Qaeda operated under Taliban tolerance, today’s landscape features a more interconnected web of groups leveraging Afghanistan’s instability. The piece underscores three primary regional flashpoints—Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia—while warning of a global ripple effect.
Pakistan: From Patron to Prey
Pakistan’s historical backing of the Afghan Taliban, intended to secure influence in Afghanistan, has unraveled into a domestic security crisis. The article notes a surge in TTP attacks since 2021, driven by the group’s strengthened foothold in Afghanistan under Taliban protection. Open-source research, such as Akhtar and Ahmed’s 2023 study, attributes this resurgence to precipitant factors like the Afghan Taliban’s release of TTP prisoners—including key figures like Maulvi Faqir Mohammad—following their Kabul victory. Under Noor Wali Mehsud’s leadership since 2018, TTP has consolidated splinter factions (e.g., Jamaat-ul-Ahrar), boosting its strength to an estimated 2,500–6,000 fighters by 2021 (UN, 2021). Attack frequency spiked from 267 incidents in 2021 to 365 in 2022 (SATP, 2023), targeting security forces and extorting civilians in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Taliban’s refusal to curb TTP, despite Pakistan’s pleas, reflects a strategic alignment rooted in shared Deobandi ideology, amplifying Pakistan’s vulnerability.
Iran: Sectarian Tensions and ISKP’s Rise
Iran faces a dual threat from the Taliban’s anti-Shi’ite stance and ISKP’s operational freedom in Afghanistan. The article cites border clashes and ISKP’s expansion as evidence of escalating risks, corroborated by Iran’s Jomhouri-e Eslami newspaper warning of “disastrous consequences” if ignored. Doxsee and Thompson detail ISKP’s history of targeting Shia minorities, such as the 2020 Kabul maternity ward attack (24 killed), and its resilience despite losing territory. With 1,500–2,200 fighters as of 2021, ISKP exploits the U.S. withdrawal to regroup, evidenced by the August 2021 Kabul airport bombing (183 deaths). Iran’s military cooperation with the Taliban against ISKP has faltered, leaving Tehran exposed to cross-border threats and sectarian violence.
Central Asia: Tajikistan Under Siege
The Taliban’s hostility toward Tajikistan, marked by troop deployments and threats, signals a push to export extremism into Central Asia. The article warns of Takfiri ideology spreading via Taliban-aligned groups, a concern echoed by reports of TTP’s outreach to regional militants. Tajikistan’s porous border with Afghanistan, combined with the Taliban’s ideological sway, heightens the risk of destabilization. While the Taliban lack direct control over Central Asian factions, their model inspires local radicals, potentially igniting a broader crisis affecting Russian and Chinese interests.
Global Implications: A New 9/11?
The article’s gravest assertion is that Taliban-backed groups—bolstered by Al-Qaeda’s enduring ties and ISKP’s global aspirations—could orchestrate attacks dwarfing 9/11. Al-Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan, estimated at 400–600 fighters,, and ISKP’s urban attack capabilities underscore this potential. The U.S. withdrawal has diminished counterterrorism pressure, granting these groups strategic breathing room. Pakistan’s failed negotiations with TTP (e.g., 2022 ceasefire collapse) and the Afghan Taliban’s sanctuary provision amplify the threat, positioning Afghanistan as a launchpad for transnational jihad.
Contextual Drivers
Leadership and Consolidation: TTP’s revival under Noor Wali Mehsud, with centralized command and modern weaponry from Afghan stockpiles, mirrors the Taliban’s organizational playbook.
External Support: The Afghan Taliban’s ideological and logistical backing—evidenced by TTP rallies in eastern Afghanistan—fuels regional militancy.
State Fragility: Pakistan’s governance challenges in ex-FATA and Afghanistan’s collapse create fertile ground for extremism, though static structural factors alone don’t explain the rapid escalation.
The article’s call for international action reflects a stark reality: absent coordinated pressure, Afghanistan’s terrorist ecosystem could metastasize, threatening both regional neighbors and distant shores.
Sources
