Trouble in the Sahel: JNIM Strikes Again

OSINT Report

Oct 8

Overview

On October 8, 2024, the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) launched coordinated attacks on multiple military installations across Mali, striking military camps in Ber, Timbuktu Cercle, Gao, and Timbuktu military airports. The attacks, marked by a barrage of rockets, mortars, and artillery shells, were partially repelled by Malian forces (FAMA), who captured motorcycles, arms, and identity documents. However, the assaults underscore the group's growing operational capacity in the region. At Ber camp, where the most intense fighting occurred, several JNIM militants were killed, and three suicide bombers detonated their explosives, marking an escalation in tactics.

In a significant development, an L-39C Albatros jet—likely donated by Russia—arrived shortly after the offensive began, forcing JNIM militants to retreat. This attack follows another assault launched by the group on the Malian capital, Bamako, just weeks earlier, which left 70 dead and over 200 wounded. The series of attacks highlight the increasing threat posed by JNIM as the group targets strategic military infrastructure.

Intel

Recent Attacks and Escalation in Tactics

The coordinated attacks on military installations across Mali demonstrate JNIM's growing strength in the region. The group's use of rockets and suicide bombers, followed by ground assaults, signals a shift towards more complex operations aimed at undermining the already fragile security apparatus in the Sahel. JNIM's ability to launch simultaneous strikes on key military sites shows not only its capacity to conduct large-scale operations but also the FAMA's vulnerabilities in defending these installations. The involvement of Russian mercenaries and the growing Russian presence in the region further complicates the security landscape, as JNIM's tactics appear aimed at exploiting these weaknesses.

The recent attack on Ber camp, in particular, stands out due to the deployment of suicide bombers, a tactic less frequently used by JNIM in the past. This shift could indicate a new phase in the group's strategy, as they continue to grow bolder and more destructive. The group's previous assault on Bamako marked its first major strike on the capital in several years, further escalating tensions between the Malian junta and extremist forces operating in the region.

Historical Context of JNIM’s Attacks

JNIM has a history of launching devastating attacks across the Sahel, with its influence spreading from Mali to Burkina Faso, Niger, and even into coastal West African countries. Since its formation in 2017, JNIM has carried out numerous high-profile operations, often targeting military forces and government infrastructure. One of the group's most brutal assaults occurred in 2022, when JNIM fighters attacked a military base in Kati, just 10 miles from Bamako. This marked the beginning of a series of increasingly sophisticated assaults that continue to threaten the stability of the region.

In 2023, JNIM was responsible for over half of the violent events in the Sahel region, with its most frequent targets being the Burkinabe and Malian armies. The group has also been linked to numerous civilian deaths, with attacks on villages and public spaces such as markets and schools becoming a hallmark of its operations. Despite efforts by local governments and international actors to stem the violence, JNIM's influence has only grown, aided by its ability to exploit local grievances and operate in ungoverned spaces.

Strategic Impact

JNIM's growing influence in the Sahel poses a significant threat not only to the stability of Mali but to the wider West African region. The group's ability to strike military and government targets with impunity highlights the weakness of local security forces and their reliance on foreign military support. The increasing involvement of Russian forces in Mali, while providing some tactical advantages, has also drawn the ire of JNIM, which has framed its attacks as a response to human rights abuses committed by Malian and Russian forces. This rhetoric resonates with local populations, many of whom feel alienated by the presence of foreign forces and the perceived failures of their governments to protect them.

Furthermore, JNIM's attacks on military infrastructure are likely aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the Malian junta, which has struggled to maintain control over vast swathes of the country. The group's ability to carry out simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts, combined with its continued territorial expansion, suggests that it is positioning itself as a dominant force in the region. As JNIM solidifies its hold over parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, its influence is likely to spread further into coastal West Africa, threatening the stability of emerging democracies in the region.

Final Thoughts

The recent attacks by JNIM represent not only a tactical escalation but a broader strategic shift that could have far-reaching consequences for the Sahel and beyond. The group’s growing capabilities, combined with its ability to exploit local grievances and evade foreign military forces, make it a formidable adversary. JNIM’s history of attacks, particularly its increasing willingness to target military infrastructure and its use of suicide bombers, underscores the need for a coordinated and sustained response from both local and international actors. If left unchecked, JNIM could continue to expand its influence, further destabilizing the region and posing a significant threat to global security.