Trump’s Nationalist Turn Drives Allies Toward Each Other — and China
Executive Summary
As Donald Trump continues to pursue a nationalist and confrontational foreign policy, long-standing U.S. allies in East Asia and Europe are drifting toward regional cooperation—and, increasingly, toward China. The trilateral meeting between Japan, South Korea, and China this week, along with growing European frustration over trade and defense issues, signals a global realignment prompted by the United States’ retreat from multilateralism.
Analysis
The foreign ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea convened in Tokyo on March 22, 2025, in what all parties framed as a historic moment. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya called it a “turning point in history,” while Chinese counterpart Wang Yi emphasized that the three countries, representing nearly 1.6 billion people and over $24 trillion in economic output, could become a major force in global affairs. This meeting—the first since 2023—coincided with mounting geopolitical strain caused in part by U.S. President Donald Trump’s increasingly isolationist and punitive policies.
In particular, Trump’s aggressive stance toward U.S. allies, marked by trade tariffs, military burden-shifting, and erratic diplomacy, has created a vacuum that China is eager to fill. Wang Yi proposed resuming free trade negotiations and expanding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), leveraging Beijing’s relative diplomatic consistency against Washington’s volatility. While deep-seated disputes remain between China and its neighbors—especially over Taiwan, North Korea, and maritime security—Japan and South Korea are clearly hedging their bets.
This regional reorientation is not occurring in isolation. Trump’s “America First” doctrine continues to reverberate across the Atlantic as well. In Europe, the EU is not only reeling from the revival of steel and aluminum tariffs but also strategizing retaliatory measures that aim to hit American exports where it politically hurts—bourbon from Kentucky, poultry from Nebraska, and motorcycles from Wisconsin. These new trade tensions have sparked widespread concern among EU leaders and economic stakeholders about the future of transatlantic relations.
The European Commission has delayed its planned counter-tariffs until mid-April, signaling a desire for last-minute dialogue. But the tone is increasingly sour. EU officials have warned that tariffs will hurt both sides, especially consumers, and that the situation risks spinning out of control. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed these concerns, stating that trade conflicts “in a world fraught with geopolitical and economic uncertainties” serve no one. Both Brussels and Ottawa are calling for a comprehensive renegotiation of economic ties with Washington, but few believe the Trump administration is interested in compromise.
Public sentiment in Europe reinforces this divide. A recent poll conducted in nine European countries found that 51% of respondents consider Donald Trump an “enemy of Europe,” and 63% believe his presidency makes the world less safe. Alarmingly, 43% said Trump exhibits “authoritarian tendencies,” and 39% believe he “acts like a dictator.” These numbers speak to a significant loss of trust—not just in Trump, but in the U.S. as a reliable partner. Moreover, 70% of respondents believe Europe must rely on its own defense capabilities, rather than depend on American guarantees.
This erosion of trust is reshaping not only alliances, but security strategies. Both Japan and South Korea are now engaging directly with China on issues ranging from aging populations and environmental resilience to defense de-escalation and economic integration. Even while Japan and South Korea remain wary of China’s support for North Korea and assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait, they are exploring pragmatic collaboration with Beijing in the absence of U.S. diplomatic stability.
The joint foreign ministers’ meeting also addressed the thorny issue of seafood imports, with Japan urging China to lift its ban on marine products imposed after the Fukushima wastewater release. While no immediate agreement was reached, both sides confirmed a willingness to continue dialogue—a stark contrast to the U.S.-China deadlock over trade and sanctions.
Significantly, the three nations are now planning a formal trilateral summit later this year. This step alone underscores a mutual recognition that East Asia must become more self-reliant in managing regional security, economic resilience, and diplomatic engagement.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, have struggled to defuse rising tensions with Europe. The return of tariffs from Trump’s first term—now revived with added intensity—is perceived not as negotiation leverage, but as economic coercion. The European Union is targeting its retaliatory measures politically, aiming for key U.S. exports from Republican strongholds, clearly signaling the growing politicization of international trade.
Trump’s belligerent posture on tariffs, coupled with his diminished regard for transatlantic cooperation, is accelerating a pivot by allies who increasingly see multilateral diplomacy—whether in East Asia or the EU—as their only viable strategy. The threat of a new U.S.-instigated trade war, combined with the perception of authoritarian drift, is pushing countries like Japan, South Korea, and EU members into alternative arrangements where China, once viewed primarily as a strategic competitor, is now an indispensable interlocutor.
This geopolitical shift doesn’t signal full alignment with Beijing, but it reflects a global reaction to a United States whose foreign policy under Trump is defined less by alliance-building and more by transactionalism, nationalism, and volatility. In Tokyo, Brussels, and Seoul, governments are adapting—cautiously but decisively—to a world where Washington may no longer be the cornerstone of international stability.
Sources
Reuters – Japan, China, South Korea Meet at Geopolitical ‘Turning Point in History’
Associated Press – Japan, China and South Korea Discuss Trilateral Cooperation
Associated Press – Canada and EU Retaliate Against Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
Politico – Majority of Europeans See Trump as an Enemy, Survey Shows
