Turkey’s Expanding Influence: Vision, Strategy, and Challenges in Post-Assad Syria
Executive Summary
Turkey has intensified its regional assertiveness following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan outlining a vision of Turkey transcending its national borders. This includes active engagement in Syria, Libya, and Somalia under a historical and civilizational mission. Turkey is positioning itself as a pivotal actor in reshaping Syria, strengthening its ties with the new administration led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and calling for the lifting of sanctions to aid reconstruction. However, Turkey’s aspirations face resistance from regional players like Russia, which views Ankara's pan-Turkic vision as a direct threat, and concerns from the EU and U.S. regarding Kurdish groups and HTS's past affiliations.
Analysis
Turkey’s influence in Syria has surged as the Erdoğan administration frames its actions within a "destiny" of regional leadership. President Erdoğan has explicitly linked Turkey's ambitions to its Ottoman legacy, emphasizing that Turkey's vision cannot be confined to its borders. The Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, has advocated for lifting sanctions on Syria to facilitate the country's recovery, marking a deepening partnership with HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani).
While Ankara’s role in the new Syrian political framework appears pivotal, it has drawn mixed reactions. Turkey’s actions, particularly its collaboration with HTS, are raising alarms globally. The U.S. has controversially engaged with HTS leaders, signaling potential shifts in diplomatic stances, though the group remains designated as a terrorist organization. Turkey, on the other hand, frames HTS's leadership as a stabilizing force in the region.
Domestically, Erdoğan's rhetoric about Turkey's historical mission and the "Grand Turan" concept resonates with nationalist narratives but provokes backlash from Russia. Russian media have labeled the pan-Turkic vision as a threat to Russian territorial integrity, citing Turkey's perceived ambitions in Turkic-speaking regions within Russia.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s confrontation with Kurdish forces in northern Syria has drawn criticism from Western allies. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned against military action, citing risks of destabilizing efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Nonetheless, Turkey views Kurdish factions, particularly the YPG, as existential threats tied to the PKK insurgency.
Israel also emerges as a competitor, extending its influence in the Golan Heights. The simultaneous maneuvering of Turkey and Israel underscores a complex regional rivalry, with both nations asserting dominance in the evolving Syrian landscape. Erdoğan’s ambitions extend beyond Syria, with potential implications for Libya, Somalia, and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Turkey’s strategic actions reflect both opportunity and risk. While it seeks to shape Syria’s future and secure its borders, tensions with Russia, skepticism from Western allies, and unresolved Kurdish issues present formidable challenges.
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