Turkey’s Strategic Triumphs: Geopolitical Success in Africa and Syria
Executive Summary
Turkey has solidified its position as a key geopolitical actor by mediating a landmark agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, resolving a decade-long rivalry that undermined Egypt’s regional leverage. Simultaneously, Turkey facilitated the Syrian rebels’ successful overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, signaling a major shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. These actions highlight Ankara’s ambitions to expand its influence across Africa and the Middle East, often at the expense of traditional powers like Egypt, Iran, Russia, and the United States. The dual victories underscore Turkey’s ability to assert itself as a regional leader and fill the power vacuums left by distracted global actors.
Analysis
Turkey’s mediation of a peace agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia is a significant diplomatic achievement, ending years of hostilities and disputes over Somali sovereignty. The deal guarantees Ethiopia access to Somali ports under Somali sovereignty, signaling Addis Ababa’s likely withdrawal of recognition for the de facto state of Somaliland. This arrangement disrupts Egypt’s regional strategy, which included supporting Somalia militarily to counter Ethiopia’s controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo’s deployment of 10,000 troops and three shipments of weapons to Somalia earlier this year, part of its broader efforts to pressure Ethiopia, is now largely irrelevant following Turkey’s successful negotiation.
In Syria, Turkey’s influence is even more pronounced. The recent rebel offensive, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed factions, captured Aleppo and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This surprise operation exploited the Assad regime’s weakened state, exacerbated by distracted allies such as Iran and Russia. The loss of Aleppo, a key strategic and symbolic city, represents the most significant defeat for the Assad government since 2016. Reports suggest Turkish coordination in this campaign, underscoring Ankara’s intent to reshape the region’s balance of power.
The collapse of Assad’s regime creates a precarious situation in Syria. A power vacuum threatens to unleash sectarian violence, particularly against Alawite and Christian communities seen as loyal to Assad. Additionally, the risk of chemical weapon stockpiles falling into extremist hands raises alarms for regional and global security. The humanitarian toll is already severe, with thousands displaced and Aleppo’s infrastructure in ruins. Meanwhile, Kurdish forces, particularly the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), face renewed threats as Turkey’s military buildup along the border signals potential incursions into territories controlled by groups Ankara associates with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Turkey’s actions in both regions demonstrate its ability to operate strategically on multiple fronts. In the Horn of Africa, Ankara capitalized on U.S. disengagement and Egypt’s overreach to emerge as a key mediator. In Syria, it exploited the weaknesses of Assad’s allies and Washington’s diminishing presence to reshape the conflict’s trajectory. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s acknowledgment of Turkey’s role in Assad’s overthrow highlights Ankara’s rising dominance and its challenge to the global power balance.
These developments have significant implications for the international order. Turkey’s assertiveness signals the need for renewed U.S. engagement in strategically vital regions. Without it, rival powers like Turkey, Russia, and China will continue to expand their influence, reshaping geopolitics in ways that undermine traditional U.S. and allied interests.