Key Judgment:

Ukraine's contemplation of using long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike deep within Russian territory, including potential targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg, represents a high-risk strategy intended to pressure Russia into negotiations. This approach could escalate the conflict significantly, especially given the reluctance of the U.S. and other Western allies to support such actions, fearing broader regional destabilization.

Supporting Evidence:

1. Ukraine's Strategic Calculations:

   • Ukrainian officials are increasingly advocating for the use of Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 305 kilometers, to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. This move is seen as a way to demonstrate Ukraine's military capability and push Russia towards negotiating a ceasefire. The missiles, supplied by the UK and France, were developed in collaboration with several European nations and have been instrumental in Ukraine's defense efforts.

   • The idea behind targeting areas close to Moscow and St. Petersburg is to create a credible threat that could force the Kremlin to reconsider its ongoing military strategy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hinted at such retaliatory strikes in his recent speeches, emphasizing the need for a strong and symmetrical response to Russian aggression.

2. Western Reluctance and Concerns:

   • Despite Ukraine's lobbying, the U.S. has been hesitant to authorize the use of Storm Shadow missiles for strikes deep within Russia. American officials have expressed concerns about the potential for escalation, noting that such actions could derail any future attempts at diplomatic resolution. Additionally, there are concerns about the precision of these missiles over extended distances, which could lead to unintended civilian casualties or other collateral damage.

   • The U.S. and its allies have maintained a cautious stance, allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons only in specific border areas that are directly involved in the conflict. This careful calibration is intended to avoid provoking a broader conflict that could draw in other regional powers, including NATO member states.

3. Escalation Risks and Military Dynamics:

   • The use of long-range missiles to target key Russian cities would mark a significant escalation in the conflict, potentially inviting retaliatory strikes by Russia on Ukrainian cities or even NATO supply lines. The potential for miscalculation is high, particularly if Russia interprets such strikes as a direct threat to its leadership or national security.

   • Ukraine's strategy also reflects the challenges it faces on the eastern front, where its military has struggled to make significant advances against entrenched Russian forces. By shifting the focus to deep strikes within Russia, Ukraine hopes to alter the dynamics of the conflict, though this approach carries substantial risks.

Implications:

Ukraine’s consideration of long-range strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg using Western-supplied missiles could have far-reaching implications. If executed, such actions might push Russia to the negotiating table, but they also carry the risk of significant escalation, potentially drawing in broader international involvement. The reluctance of Western allies to fully endorse this strategy highlights the delicate balance of supporting Ukraine’s defense while avoiding a broader, more dangerous conflict. Should Ukraine proceed with these strikes, it could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the war, either leading to new diplomatic efforts or escalating into a more unpredictable and potentially catastrophic phase.