U.S. Military Strike Kills Al Qaeda-Aligned Leader in Syria

Date: August 25, 2024

Overview: On August 23, 2024, the U.S. military executed a precision airstrike in Syria, successfully eliminating Abu-’Abd al-Rahman al-Makki, a senior leader within Hurras al-Din, an Al Qaeda-aligned militant group. This operation was carried out by U.S. Central Command as part of a broader strategy to target high-ranking members of extremist organizations in the region. Al-Makki's death marks a significant blow to the operational capabilities of Hurras al-Din, which has been involved in numerous terrorist activities both within Syria and across the broader Middle East.

Analysis: The elimination of Abu-’Abd al-Rahman al-Makki represents a critical victory for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Syria. Hurras al-Din, which translates to "Guardians of the Religion," is one of the most resilient Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria, having splintered from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2018 due to ideological differences. While HTS has attempted to distance itself from Al Qaeda, Hurras al-Din has maintained its allegiance, continuing to coordinate operations with other jihadist groups in the region and perpetrating attacks against Syrian government forces, rival militias, and Western interests.

Al-Makki's death is expected to create a significant disruption within Hurras al-Din's leadership structure. As one of the group's top commanders, he played a crucial role in planning and executing operations, as well as in maintaining the ideological cohesion that has kept the group aligned with Al Qaeda's global objectives. His removal from the battlefield will likely lead to a temporary power vacuum within the organization, potentially sparking internal power struggles as remaining leaders vie for control. This internal instability could weaken Hurras al-Din's operational effectiveness in the short term, reducing its ability to carry out coordinated attacks.

The successful strike also highlights the ongoing effectiveness of U.S. intelligence and military capabilities in targeting high-value targets in Syria. Over the past decade, U.S. forces have developed a sophisticated network of intelligence assets and surveillance systems capable of tracking and neutralizing terrorist leaders in real-time. This capability is particularly significant in the Syrian context, where the complex and fluid nature of the conflict has made it difficult to maintain consistent pressure on extremist groups. The ability to carry out precision strikes with minimal collateral damage is essential in maintaining the legitimacy of U.S. operations in the region, both in the eyes of the international community and the local population.

However, al-Makki's death also underscores the persistence of Al Qaeda-aligned groups in Syria, despite years of sustained counterterrorism efforts. Hurras al-Din, along with other Al Qaeda affiliates like Al Nusra Front and Tanzim Hurras al-Islam, has managed to survive and even thrive in the chaotic environment of the Syrian civil war. These groups have been able to exploit the power vacuums created by the conflict, establishing control over significant territories in Idlib and other parts of northwestern Syria. They have also benefited from the support of local populations, who often view them as a lesser evil compared to the Assad regime or other foreign powers involved in the conflict.

The persistence of such groups suggests that while leadership decapitation strategies can be effective in disrupting terrorist operations, they are not sufficient to eliminate the underlying conditions that give rise to extremism. Al Qaeda's ideology continues to resonate with a small but significant portion of the population in Syria and beyond, fueled by grievances related to foreign intervention, sectarian violence, and political repression. As long as these conditions persist, new leaders will emerge to replace those who are killed, and the cycle of violence will continue.

Moreover, the U.S. strike on al-Makki could have broader implications for the dynamics of the Syrian conflict. Hurras al-Din has maintained a complex relationship with other jihadist groups in Syria, including HTS and various factions within the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. While these groups often compete for influence and resources, they have also been known to cooperate when faced with a common enemy, such as the Assad regime or the Islamic State. The death of al-Makki could shift the balance of power among these groups, potentially leading to new alliances or conflicts as they seek to capitalize on the leadership vacuum within Hurras al-Din.

The operation also serves as a message to other extremist groups in the region that the U.S. remains committed to countering terrorism in Syria. Despite the drawdown of U.S. forces in the region and the shifting focus of American foreign policy toward great power competition with Russia and China, the ability to execute targeted strikes against high-value targets demonstrates that the U.S. retains significant counterterrorism capabilities in the Middle East. This could deter other groups from attempting to expand their operations or launch attacks against U.S. interests, knowing that they remain under constant surveillance and could be targeted at any time.

However, this operation could also provoke retaliatory actions from remaining Al Qaeda affiliates or their sympathizers, potentially leading to an escalation in violence or attempts to carry out revenge attacks against U.S. interests in the region. Hurras al-Din and its allies have a history of responding to leadership losses with increased attacks, both in Syria and abroad. The group has the capability to strike against both military and civilian targets, using tactics such as suicide bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings. U.S. forces and their allies in Syria, as well as American diplomatic and military facilities in the wider region, could be at heightened risk in the coming weeks and months as a result.

The death of al-Makki, while a tactical success, will need to be followed by sustained pressure on Al Qaeda-linked groups to prevent them from regrouping and continuing their activities. The ongoing challenge for U.S. forces and their allies will be to maintain momentum in counterterrorism operations while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of Syria, where multiple actors with conflicting interests are at play. This includes managing the delicate balance between countering terrorism and avoiding escalation with other major powers involved in the conflict, such as Russia and Iran.