U.S.-Russia Peace Talks Face Major Hurdles as Intelligence Suggests Putin Has No Intentions of Ending War

Intelligence Report
Written By Matt Helmkamp

Executive Summary

Despite high-profile negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia, intelligence reports from the U.S. and its allies suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not genuinely seeking a peace deal. While Trump administration officials claim progress is being made, sources indicate that Putin still believes he can ultimately control all of Ukraine and is using negotiations as a strategic pause to regroup. The exclusion of Ukraine from the talks has sparked outrage from Kyiv and European leaders, fueling concerns that any potential deal could be tilted in Russia’s favor.

Analysis

The U.S.-Russia negotiations in Riyadh mark the first direct high-level diplomatic engagement between Washington and Moscow in three years. President Donald Trump has framed the talks as a major step toward ending the war, insisting that Putin “wants to stop the fighting” and that a deal could be reached by Easter. However, intelligence assessments from Western officials contradict these claims, with multiple sources stating that Putin remains committed to his long-term goal of controlling Ukraine.

Senior U.S. officials—including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz—are leading negotiations alongside Trump’s personal envoy Steve Witkoff. On the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and senior Kremlin officials have been engaged in discussions. Despite the optimism from the Trump administration, intelligence officials warn that Putin is likely using the talks as a means to buy time, stabilize Russia’s military, and gauge potential U.S. concessions.

Key Concerns

Putin’s Ultimate Ambitions: Intelligence suggests that Putin is not seeking a genuine peace deal but is instead aiming to use negotiations to extract favorable terms while maintaining control over occupied Ukrainian territories.

Kyiv’s Exclusion: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has strongly rejected the talks, stating he will “never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine, never.” The exclusion of Ukrainian officials has led to concerns that the U.S. may be entertaining compromises that could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.

European Backlash: The negotiations have sparked an emergency summit in Paris, where European leaders—including France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Olaf Scholz, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer—are strategizing their response. The EU and NATO fear that a rushed U.S.-Russia deal could leave Europe vulnerable to further Russian aggression.

Latvian Intelligence Warning: A newly declassified Latvian intelligence report warns that freezing the Ukraine conflict would allow Russia to rebuild its military and shift its focus toward NATO’s eastern flank. The report indicates that if hostilities pause, Moscow could reinforce its military presence in the Baltic states within five years.

Despite these concerns, Trump has dismissed criticisms, stating that his approach will bring a “quick and fair” resolution to the conflict. However, skepticism remains high, as intelligence assessments suggest that any premature settlement could ultimately embolden Russia and leave Ukraine at risk of future attacks.

Sources

Matt Helmkamp
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