Iran’s Use of Proxies and Potential Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Soil - A Looming Threat in 2024 and Beyond

October 10, 2024 Matt Helmkamp

Executive Summary

Iran has long relied on a diverse network of proxies to execute its objectives while maintaining plausible deniability. From traditional militant groups such as Hezbollah to less conventional partners like outlaw motorcycle gangs and drug trafficking networks, Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders is extensive. This report delves into Iran’s historical use of these proxies, recent arrests, and how they could exploit U.S.-based protestors to carry out terror activities. Moreover, it explores Iran’s presence in Latin America, its role in financing terrorism, and the complex relationships Iran maintains with China and Russia. These factors contribute to a heightened threat environment, especially as tensions escalate around key religious dates and political milestones.

Analysis

Iran’s Historical Use of Proxies in the U.S.

Iran has used proxies not only in the Middle East but across the globe to conduct attacks on its adversaries. Over the years, the United States has foiled numerous plots linked to Iranian proxies that have reached far beyond the conventional use of militant groups like Hezbollah. For instance, in 2011, an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. was revealed, orchestrated through a Mexican drug cartel. This move highlights Iran’s willingness to engage with non-state actors, including criminal organizations, to achieve its objectives.

More recently, outlaw motorcycle gangs and organized crime groups have become attractive to Iran. These groups, often engaged in drug trafficking and other illegal activities, offer Iran logistical support and the potential for violent operations with minimal direct involvement from state actors. By working with such networks, Iran continues to blur the lines between state-sponsored terrorism and organized crime, making it difficult for authorities to attribute attacks directly to Tehran.

One such example is the foiled plot involving an Iranian operative who attempted to hire a U.S.-based criminal group to assassinate a high-ranking U.S. official in 2020. These instances demonstrate Iran’s capacity to extend its reach into the U.S. criminal underworld, using these groups as proxies for carrying out attacks or destabilizing activities without drawing attention directly to the Iranian state.

Potential for Iran to Exploit U.S.-Based Protestors

Amid heightened political tensions and protests in the U.S., Iran has recognized an opportunity to further its objectives by exploiting domestic unrest. The use of social media platforms to radicalize and incite violence among protest groups provides Iran with a new avenue for proxy warfare. The potential for Iran to infiltrate protest movements, either through ideological alignment or by inserting trained provocateurs, increases the risk of coordinated violent attacks.

Iran has already demonstrated its capacity to influence public opinion and exacerbate tensions through disinformation campaigns. In the past, Iranian state actors and proxies have amplified racial and political divides within the U.S. via cyber operations, further stoking domestic unrest. The rise of protest movements and the radicalization of fringe elements within these groups creates an environment ripe for exploitation by Iranian intelligence services or aligned militant factions. With access to firearms and explosives becoming easier through criminal connections, these groups could be leveraged for terror operations targeting government facilities, critical infrastructure, or specific political figures.

Iran’s Presence in Latin America

Iran’s activities in Latin America serve as an extension of its global proxy network. Hezbollah’s deep-rooted presence in countries such as Venezuela, Brazil, and Argentina provides Iran with a base from which to launch operations across the Western Hemisphere. Latin American governments’ weaker regulatory frameworks and porous borders allow Iran and its proxies to establish drug trafficking and money laundering operations that fund terrorist activities globally.

Iran has also worked closely with certain Latin American governments, particularly those that are hostile to U.S. interests. This strategic alliance enables Iran to exert influence in a region traditionally dominated by the U.S. and provides an additional base of operations for its proxies. With Hezbollah’s significant influence in the Tri-Border Area (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay), the possibility of Iranian-backed terror attacks targeting U.S. assets or allies in the region remains a critical concern for U.S. intelligence agencies.

Terrorism Financing and Iran’s Criminal Network

Iran’s reliance on illicit financial activities to fund its operations is well-documented. Hezbollah’s involvement in the global drug trade, particularly in Latin America, has generated significant revenues for the organization, which are funneled back to Iran for use in supporting terror networks. Moreover, Iran’s use of front companies, charitable organizations, and even crowdfunding campaigns has enabled it to raise funds discreetly and evade financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies.

Iran’s financial schemes have evolved to include the use of virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, to fund its proxies. These decentralized systems provide anonymity and allow Iran to bypass traditional financial systems, making it harder for authorities to track the flow of funds. Additionally, recent reports suggest that Iran has ramped up its efforts to engage in money laundering through state-backed companies, further muddying the waters of its financial activities.

Iran’s capacity to generate income through these illicit networks not only sustains its proxy forces but also allows it to maintain its influence over global terrorist activities. The importance of monitoring these financial flows is critical, as any lapse could lead to an increase in terrorist operations, both abroad and on U.S. soil.

Relationships with China and Russia

Iran’s alliances with China and Russia further complicate the global security landscape. While both nations seek to challenge U.S. dominance on the world stage, their relationship with Iran offers Tehran significant diplomatic, economic, and military backing. China’s financial support, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, has provided Iran with critical infrastructure investments and access to international markets, despite U.S. sanctions. This relationship ensures that Iran can continue to fund and equip its proxies without facing immediate financial collapse.

Russia, on the other hand, has provided Iran with military support, particularly in the context of the Syrian Civil War. The strained relationship between Iran and Russia after the Moscow concert hall attack in 2021 did not severely impact their strategic partnership, and the two countries continue to collaborate in regional conflicts where their interests align. Both nations benefit from Iran’s disruptive activities, which keep U.S. resources tied down in multiple theaters of conflict.

Final Thoughts

The threat of Iranian-backed terror on U.S. soil is real and evolving. From using traditional proxies like Hezbollah to enlisting outlaw motorcycle gangs and drug trafficking organizations, Iran has expanded its reach into U.S. domestic affairs. The risk of Iranian exploitation of protest movements adds a new layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. Additionally, Iran’s presence in Latin America and its ties to China and Russia provide it with a global network through which it can fund and orchestrate terror activities. As tensions escalate, particularly around religious and political dates of significance, the U.S. must remain vigilant in its efforts to thwart these potential attacks.

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