Date: September 3, 2024

Overview: Manipur has been gripped by escalating violence as drone attacks on civilian areas in Imphal West district have left two people dead and 12 others injured. These attacks, attributed to extremist groups, mark a significant escalation in the state's long-standing ethnic conflict between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities. The attacks, labeled as acts of terrorism by Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, are the latest development in a conflict that has already claimed over 220 lives and displaced tens of thousands.

Analysis: The use of drones to target civilian populations represents a disturbing new dimension in the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur. The state's government and security forces have previously expressed concerns about the growing sophistication of militant groups, particularly their acquisition of advanced technologies like drones. These developments raise alarms about the potential for increased casualties and further destabilization of the region.

The drone attacks highlight the increasing desperation and strategic shifts within the extremist factions involved in the conflict. By targeting civilians, these groups are likely attempting to provoke a response from the state and further inflame communal tensions. The presence of drones also complicates security operations, as traditional ground-based countermeasures may not be sufficient to mitigate this new threat.

From a broader perspective, the conflict in Manipur remains deeply rooted in ethnic divisions and longstanding grievances. However, the introduction of drone warfare could push the conflict into more dangerous territory, potentially drawing the attention of national and international actors concerned about the proliferation of terrorism and advanced weaponry in the region. The involvement of external extremist groups and their links to insurgencies across South Asia further complicates the conflict.

The Manipur government’s swift condemnation of the drone strikes and its promise to combat these acts of terrorism suggest that efforts will be intensified to counter the militants' growing capabilities. However, the increasing use of technology in the conflict underscores the need for comprehensive security reforms and international cooperation to prevent further escalation and to address the underlying ethnic grievances fueling the violence.