Expansion of Terrorism in Northern Africa Requires U.S. Intervention

Executive Summary

Northern Africa has emerged as a critical battleground for violent extremist groups such as Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, ISIS, and regional affiliates of al-Qaeda. Despite years of military intervention, the region has seen a dramatic increase in terrorist activities and fatalities, with a staggering 20% rise in deaths related to militant Islamist violence in 2023 alone. As regional and international efforts have failed to contain the threat, there is a growing need for more comprehensive strategies that combine military, economic, and social interventions. With U.S. interests in Africa at stake, including regional stability and the prevention of further state collapse, a more focused and multifaceted U.S. intervention is urgently required.

Analysis:

Failure of Military-Heavy Approaches

Despite robust military campaigns across Northern Africa, the security situation has deteriorated significantly. For example, the African Union (AU) has conducted over 25 Peace Support Operations (PSOs) in Africa in the last two decades, including major efforts like the AU Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in the Lake Chad Basin. However, most of these interventions have focused on hard military tactics, aiming to degrade militant groups like al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and various ISIS factions. While these operations have achieved some tactical successes, they have failed to provide long-term stability. Extremist groups are often quick to regain control of liberated areas, and the reliance on military force has sometimes exacerbated radicalization rather than reducing it.

Moreover, as military operations focus on dislodging extremists from territories, they frequently leave a vacuum in governance and law enforcement that is easily filled by the same or other insurgent groups. This pattern is evident in Somalia, where the ATMIS mission succeeded in weakening al-Shabaab militarily, yet many newly liberated areas fell back into the hands of extremists due to insufficient follow-up engagement with local populations.

Radicalization and Youth Recruitment

One of the most profound failures of the current strategy in Northern Africa is the lack of attention to the social and economic drivers of terrorism. Extremist groups have capitalized on these systemic failures, particularly the disillusionment of the region's youth. Africa is home to one of the world's largest youth populations, with 60% of the continent’s people under the age of 25. High levels of unemployment, poverty, and lack of education make these young people vulnerable to extremist recruitment.

Groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabaab have leveraged these economic grievances, presenting themselves as alternative sources of income and belonging. For example, Boko Haram's narrative often focuses on portraying local governments and international peacekeeping forces as Christian invaders, while al-Shabaab in Somalia has consistently appealed to nationalist and anti-foreign sentiments. The violent methods used by government and international forces in their counter-terrorism operations have often exacerbated the situation by alienating local populations, making it easier for extremist groups to present themselves as protectors.

The Nexus of Organized Crime and Extremism

In Northern Africa, extremist groups have also forged alliances with organized criminal syndicates, which provide them with both financial resources and additional manpower. Groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel are heavily involved in a range of illicit activities, including human trafficking, drug smuggling, and the illegal extraction of natural resources like gold and charcoal. This symbiotic relationship between extremists and organized crime has created a parallel economy that is beyond the reach of state authorities, allowing militant groups to finance their operations independently and build influence in local communities.

In the Sahel, for example, the JNIM coalition’s integration with criminal networks has provided a steady revenue stream, allowing it to maintain operations even in the face of international military pressure. This group, alongside others, has taken over vast areas of Northern Africa, including large parts of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These countries now face the dual threat of insurgency and organized crime, and the militant groups operating there have shown remarkable resilience, adapting their tactics and alliances to survive.

Impact of International Military Assistance

U.S. and French military assistance in Africa has often been counterproductive. Billions of dollars have been funneled into military aid and training for African forces, yet terrorism in the region has only escalated. The U.S. has maintained a significant presence in countries like Somalia, where American troops have been involved in more than 280 airstrikes and commando raids. However, despite these interventions, fatalities from Islamist violence in Africa have more than doubled since 2021, with over 23,000 deaths reported in 2023.【】.

While AFRICOM touts its success in "countering transnational threats and malign actors," the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. Reports indicate that the presence of U.S. military forces has, in some cases, contributed to local instability, as many African governments have become increasingly reliant on military solutions while neglecting essential governance and development issues. This has created a situation where military coups and authoritarian regimes are on the rise, undermining efforts to promote democratic governance and human rights in the region.

Community-Oriented Policing as a Soft Approach

As the limitations of military interventions become more apparent, there is a growing recognition of the need for community-oriented policing and other soft power approaches to counter radicalization and violent extremism. Community policing focuses on building trust between law enforcement and local populations, empowering communities to take an active role in their own security, and addressing the root causes of extremism. This approach has been successfully employed in other parts of the world, and there is evidence to suggest it could be effective in Africa as well.

The AU and other regional actors have been slow to adopt this approach. ATMIS, for instance, only introduced a police component in 2009, and even then, it was not given the resources or manpower necessary to have a significant impact. As a result, military operations continue to dominate counter-terrorism efforts, while the underlying issues of governance, economic development, and social cohesion are largely ignored.

The U.S. Role Moving Forward

Given the worsening situation in Northern Africa, it is clear that the U.S. must reassess its approach. While military assistance and counter-terrorism operations remain essential in the short term, a more holistic approach is necessary to achieve long-term stability. This approach must prioritize economic development, governance reforms, and the strengthening of civil society.

The U.S. should increase its support for local governance initiatives that aim to improve the lives of Northern Africa's youth by providing educational opportunities and job training programs. These efforts would help to combat the socioeconomic conditions that drive radicalization and recruitment into extremist groups. Additionally, the U.S. could partner with international organizations like the United Nations and the African Union to provide technical assistance and capacity-building programs focused on community policing and local law enforcement reform.

Moreover, U.S. policymakers should also work to ensure that military assistance is paired with governance reforms. In countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, where U.S.-trained military officers have participated in coups, there is a clear need for more stringent oversight of military aid programs. Linking military assistance to progress on democratic governance and human rights could help to prevent future coups and ensure that the U.S. is not inadvertently contributing to regional instability.

Final Thoughts:

The continued rise of terrorism in Northern Africa presents a direct threat to regional and global security. To address this crisis, the U.S. must intervene with a more comprehensive strategy that moves beyond military force and focuses on sustainable solutions, including economic development, community engagement, and governance reform. By combining these elements with its ongoing counter-terrorism efforts, the U.S. can help to stabilize the region and curb the spread of extremist violence.