Homeland Threat Assessment 2025: A Comprehensive Outlook on National Security Challenges

Executive Summary

The Homeland Threat Assessment 2025 outlines a multifaceted and interconnected set of security risks to the United States, driven by both domestic and international actors. Threats to public safety, border and immigration security, critical infrastructure, and economic stability dominate the security landscape. Domestic violent extremists (DVEs), homegrown violent extremists (HVEs), foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) pose significant threats, particularly in an environment shaped by political events, global conflicts, and evolving technologies. Economic manipulation by state actors, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and the ongoing threat of illegal drugs—particularly fentanyl—are pressing concerns. The evolving nature of these threats, exacerbated by technological advancements and geopolitical tensions, requires continuous vigilance and robust response strategies.

Summary

In Public Safety and Security, the United States faces growing threats from a variety of violent actors. Domestic violent extremists and homegrown violent extremists, often influenced by ideologies rooted in anti-government, racial, religious, and conspiracy-based motivations, remain a persistent danger. With the upcoming 2024 election cycle, these threats are expected to intensify, as extremists use political events and international conflicts to justify violence. Lone offenders and small groups are especially dangerous, due to their unpredictability and the difficulty of intercepting their plans. While domestic extremists target ethnic and religious minorities, government officials, and law enforcement personnel, foreign terrorist organizations like ISIS and al-Qa'ida remain intent on inspiring attacks on U.S. soil. International events, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, serve as rallying points for extremists to spread propaganda, recruit, and incite violence.

Illegal drugs, especially fentanyl, continue to be a deadly threat to American communities. Fentanyl’s potency and prevalence make it the most lethal drug in circulation, even as seizures decrease from record highs in previous years. Transnational criminal organizations, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the New Generation Jalisco Cartel, remain central players in the trafficking of fentanyl, methamphetamine, cocaine, and heroin into the U.S. These organizations continue to adapt by using innovative smuggling techniques and shifting chemical compositions to circumvent law enforcement efforts. Synthetic drugs laced with dangerous additives, such as nitazenes and xylazine, are compounding the crisis, resulting in rising overdose rates across the country.

State actors, including China, Iran, and Russia, continue to pose serious threats through influence operations and transnational repression. China's aggressive use of coercive tactics to suppress dissent among diaspora populations in the U.S. is a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty. Iran's targeting of U.S.-based dissidents, including through assassination attempts, is a growing concern. Russia, while focusing primarily on manipulating information to support its geopolitical objectives, continues to undermine U.S. democracy through influence campaigns designed to exploit social and political divisions.

In the realm of Border and Immigration Security, migrant encounters at the southern border have declined from record highs, but remain a complex issue. Economic instability, social unrest, and political turmoil in migrants' home countries continue to drive people toward the U.S. border. The decline in encounters of individuals on the Terrorist Screening Data Set, often referred to as the terrorist watchlist, offers a temporary relief but the overall threat remains. Transnational criminal organizations exploit this environment, engaging in human trafficking and drug smuggling. The growing influence of Mexican cartels and human smuggling networks across the U.S.-Mexico border continues to present serious challenges for law enforcement agencies. Their sophisticated use of violence, coercion, and surveillance—including the use of drones—enables them to evade detection and prosecution.

Meanwhile, the Critical Infrastructure Security sector is under heightened threat from foreign adversaries, particularly in cyberspace. The People's Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Iran are leveraging cyber capabilities to infiltrate and position themselves for future disruptive or destructive attacks on U.S. infrastructure. China's extensive cyber espionage campaigns are particularly concerning, given its ability to pre-position within U.S. networks for potential conflict scenarios. Russian and Iranian actors have also stepped up cyberattacks, often exploiting software vulnerabilities to target U.S. energy, communications, and healthcare sectors. Domestically, violent extremists and criminal hacktivists are increasingly calling for physical attacks on critical infrastructure as a means of advancing their ideological goals. The recent surge in attacks against the energy grid and transportation systems reflects the growing appeal of such targets.

Economic Security remains another area of strategic concern, as adversarial nations, particularly China, employ a range of coercive economic tactics to weaken U.S. competitiveness. The PRC’s economic manipulation extends to the global supply chain, where it exerts control over critical resources, such as minerals essential to U.S. industries. Its dominance in this arena poses significant risks to U.S. economic security. Additionally, economic espionage remains a critical threat, with state actors continuously seeking to steal intellectual property and sensitive technology. The use of forced labor in foreign industries, including textiles and agriculture, undercuts U.S. businesses and complicates efforts to maintain ethical trade practices. The threat is exacerbated by China’s strategic use of its economic influence to undermine U.S. policies abroad and gain leverage in global markets.

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies into malicious cyber activities has escalated, further complicating the threat landscape. AI-enhanced misinformation and disinformation campaigns, deepfakes, and generative AI tools are being employed by foreign actors to erode trust in U.S. institutions and manipulate public opinion. The potential for AI to be weaponized in cyberattacks—such as AI-generated malware—presents a clear danger to critical infrastructure and public trust in governmental systems.

Final Thoughts

The Homeland Threat Assessment 2025 serves as a sobering reminder of the diverse and complex security challenges the U.S. faces in the coming year. As the threats outlined evolve, they underscore the importance of coordinated efforts across federal, state, and local agencies to protect public safety and national security. The convergence of domestic extremist violence, foreign interference, cyberattacks, and economic manipulation requires a proactive and adaptable strategy. Technological advancements, such as AI, will both enhance and complicate defensive efforts, necessitating continuous innovation in threat mitigation. Strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure, securing borders, and protecting the economy must remain top priorities to safeguard the American way of life.